In April this year, when many people were bullish, I was reminding everyone of the risks. As shown in Figure 1-4, I was bullish in the short term because of the ETF issue, but after the market broke through, it did not follow the ideal trend, so I became bearish again.
Now that many people are bearish, I am here to recharge your confidence. The market will most likely bottom out within 1-2 months, and then follow the bull trend of January this year. This may be a relatively certain rebound from the end of this year to the beginning of next year.
There should be no black swans before the arrival of the bulls, because the 10% drop some time ago, combined with the current market liquidity and sentiment, can be considered a black swan.
After studying the interest rate hike-cut cycle of the United States in recent decades, the real crisis usually occurs during the interest rate cut period, so the real black swan may occur during this period. Therefore, the real bull market will be from the end of 2024 to 2025.