Three days ago, everyone was shouting about new highs.
Trump, interest rate cuts, Musk, ETH ETF, all good news.
I said, don't fomo yet, wait and see, try not to push it up, block out the noise and observe.
Now, let’s talk about the macro news. There is no one-sided bull or bear market.
Even if it is a new high, it is achieved by betting while watching and observing, not by shouting it out.
There could be many reasons for the increase:
The interest rate is going to be lowered, Trump is going to be elected, the compensation of Mt Gox is not large, the German government has sold out, and Musk has changed his avatar to Cyclops.
There are many reasons for the fall:
Harris has a high chance of being elected, MT Gox is about to crash, and there are many economic uncertainties in the interest rate cut.
The rise and fall can always be explained. There is no one-sided news or macro situation at the moment. Following the news and explanations is always a step behind and meaningless.
Why are everyone shouting about new highs? Because the market wants to hear it. It doesn’t matter whether they really think so or not.
Anyway, I shouted to make everyone happy, and whether I make money or lose money has nothing to do with me.
We must be especially calm in the current market, which is different from the previous cycle.
Trump's election and restrained QE will not bring about the mindless long-term unlimited money printing market of the past 20 years. We just have to tread on thin ice.
If you are carried away by market sentiment, you will always be miserable.
Those who regretted not buying the bottom at 53,500 before will probably regret not buying the top at 68,500 soon.
Why do most analysts’ words fail to make their audiences make money?
This is determined by supply and demand. Most market participants don't want to hear about things that can really make money.
What everyone wants to hear is just a reinforcement of their own opinions.
For example, if I am bullish and want to do more, I want to find a firmly bullish view in the market, like it, and find recognition.
If he is wrong, he is an idiot; if he is right, I am awesome. If the demand is like this, don’t blame the supply.
The market is naturally full of noise. No matter how reasonable the analysis seems to be, in essence, it is just supply to demand and cannot help you make money.
Market analysts do not need to make accurate analysis and predictions, they only need to provide analysis and predictions continuously.
The audience will find the analysis they want to see and agree with it.
This is what human beings are like. In fact, they have already made a decision in their hearts, and spend the rest of the time looking for reasons to support it.
So don't blame the analyst; his responsibility is limited.
After years of observation, I find that many so-called technical analyses are like people sitting in lottery stations studying trends. They think they can analyze the trends, as if they can calculate the numbers in the prize pool as long as they work hard.
Treat yourself as the dumbest fool, buy at the bottom when the price drops too much, and then sell when the bull market comes. This seemingly stable income is valued by no one.
Because most people think they are very smart and disdain to make money slowly, or they have a small amount of capital and want to make a small profit with a big return, and regard themselves as gambling gods.
In fact, reality is often cruel, much crueler than one can imagine, and opportunities are often fleeting. Either you have the patience to wait for the next big market trend, or you have a lot of money and unlimited bullets to increase your position and try and make mistakes, or you are a big liar and have a story that people can believe.
Otherwise, it is unrealistic for an ordinary investor to enter the cryptocurrency world and expect to get rich overnight.
Therefore, although it sounds a bit counterintuitive, in my opinion, the strategy with the highest overall input-output ratio is actually: abandon risk-taking, close your eyes, and hold the spot with peace of mind.
If you have the ability and learn more knowledge, there are many tracks in the cryptocurrency circle, and there are many opportunities to make money, such as level one, airdrops, and arbitrage. As long as you are good at one path, it is only a matter of time before you make money.
