Today, a friend forwarded me a research report PDF, Japan Economic Review and Outlook (1945-2024). You can also find it by searching on Baidu. It was written by an analyst from Shenwan Hongyuan.
There are 44 pages of pictures and text in total. I am more interested in the period from 1990 to 2013, which corresponds to the period of great recession in Japan's balance sheet.
It mentioned that in order to curb the overheating of the economy, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates five times in 15 months from 2.5% to 6% starting in 1989, which led to the bursting of bubbles in both the stock market and the housing market. After that, Japanese assets fell sharply, the whole society was running to deleverage, and Japan's balance sheet fell sharply.
The Japanese government was a bit slow to react to this situation. It is possible that they did not think it was a problem at first, but instead thought that a proper cooling would help the economy return to rationality. Because I saw that Japan imposed a consumption tax in 1997. Haha, mysterious self-confidence, which shows that at least in 1997, the Japanese government did not think that there was any big problem with its economy. This strategic determination is just right.
Around 2000, the Japanese government began to make efforts to boost the economy. By this time, it had been 10 years since the bubble burst. The government had cut taxes for companies and significantly increased government debt. The deficit was getting higher every year. But at this time, the Japanese economy It already has a strong inertia and is difficult to recover significantly.
Then time flew to 2013. After Shinzo Abe came to power, he implemented a more radical economic policy, with ultra-loose monetary policy, proactive devaluation of the yen, further tax cuts for companies, and optimization of the labor market and corporate governance.
After two or three years of stimulus, the effect in Japan was not obvious, but with the depreciation of the yen, more and more Japanese companies are seeking to invest overseas. There is a data that by 2021, the revenue share of Japanese overseas subsidiaries has exceeded 70%, indicating that the overseas strategy is very successful and has helped Japan survive the difficult deflationary cycle.
Then from 2020 to 2024, the yen will continue to depreciate, Japan's national savings will be released, companies will start to give employees salary increases, the stock market will rise across the board, and the Japanese economy will get out of the deflation cycle. At this time, more than 30 years have passed since the great collapse of 1990.
Many readers have asked me a question, that is, will we follow in Japan's footsteps? In fact, Goldman Sachs has done research on similar issues before, and the target of analysis is China's housing prices. I will not repeat the details, but the conclusion is that the bottom will be reached in 2027, which is equivalent to the US real estate bubble cycle in 2006, and much better than Japan in 1990.
After the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States, the market fell for five years, bottomed out for one year, and then took eight years to rebound. It was not until 2020 that it returned to its previous height. The deepest decline was around 40%.
According to this cycle, we still have 2-3 years of low period to endure, maintain confidence and patience. As for the stock market, we can't refer to the United States. If we refer to Japan, it will return to its historical high in 34 years, which means it will be 2042 for A-shares. Hahahaha, we should all pay more attention to our health and try to live to 2042.
……
Yesterday, everyone on WeChat was discussing another medical violence incident in Wenzhou, in which a doctor named Li Sheng was murdered. The murderer jumped off the building on the spot and is still being rescued. The people who rescued him were Li Sheng’s colleagues.
I have seen a lot of information circulating online about this matter, but it is difficult to tell whether it is true or not. In the interest of responsibility, I will not discuss it for now.
Some people suggested setting up security checkpoints at the entrances of hospitals, which would inevitably increase costs and reduce the efficiency of hospital work; some people suggested that doctors should be equipped with stab-proof equipment when they go to work every day; and some people suggested imitating banks and allowing doctors and patients to communicate through iron bars. I was stunned by all the ideas.
I wanted to say something, but after writing two paragraphs, I realized that I had already said the same thing, so I deleted it. I searched online and found that Japan and the United States also have similar conflicts between doctors and patients, and there are also cases of patients killing doctors. This means that even if the medical systems of developed countries have explored for decades, they cannot completely solve this kind of problem.
Therefore, we may have to accept the sudden occurrence of a doctor-killing incident every once in a while for a long time. At most, we can condemn it and support the doctor community when it happens, but we still cannot avoid the next tragedy a few years or months later. After all, people are complex and diverse, and there will always be a very small proportion of scumbags who will not reason with you at all.
Maybe it will be better to wait until AI is widely used in the medical industry? Patients can only pick up a stool and smash the robot out of anger. If it can relieve their anger and vent their emotions, then smashing a robot is acceptable.
