Players must read! 👇11 possible analysis and impact of the Fed's rate hike

1. **The US economic rhythm in units of one month is not suitable for a rate cut at the end of July. **

2. **The US economic resilience is indeed relatively strong.

3. **The Fed's first rate cut was postponed from July to September. The US basically did not increase the magnitude of the resilient economy, so the lower limit of the US stock market decline is basically unchanged-36580 points.

4. **According to the US economic rhythm in units of one month, mid-to-late August will be the beginning of the last time the US economy will be engaged before the Fed's first rate cut in September (an economic cycle in units of one month).

5. **In mid-to-late August, the US money supply will push up US Treasury bond interest rates, and US Treasury bond interest rates are likely to approach the 2023 high again.

6. **In mid-to-late August, US Treasury bond interest rates will rise, and the US may do some shameless things again and fan the flames everywhere. There may be some turbulence in the South China Sea by then, but it will not be a big deal.

7. **After the Olympics on August 11, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have a small climax and escalate slightly. The short-term climax of the Middle East situation will only occur in July, and the oil price peak will be $86.6 (US oil) in mid-to-early July.

8. **A-shares are likely to bottom out at the end of August, and US stocks may bottom out in mid-August.

9. **In early September, the United States may have a small explosion, and US stocks may bottom out again.

10. **The big positive news between China and the United States may have to wait until October.

11. **In the short term, the US unemployment rate will exceed 4.3 and reach 4.4 before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The US unemployment rate was 4.1% in June. According to the trend of the US economy and unemployment rate, it is expected to reach 4.4 from January to July to September. Therefore, the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be in September. The second rate cut has not yet been determined.

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