The cryptocurrency "clearing wave" that has crushed the market for months has passed. Well-known institutions expect that the net inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market this year will reach 8 billion US dollars, and Bitcoin will rise again in August this year. People in the cryptocurrency industry said that there are indeed some good optimistic signals recently, including that Bitcoin mining companies have actually reduced their selling in the past month, and US spot ETFs have also seen a resumption of net inflows. According to Lookonchain monitoring, yesterday, 9 US ETFs added 4,184 BTC (worth about 263 million US dollars). Among them, Blackrock added 2,072 BTC (worth about 130 million US dollars) and currently holds 316,276 BTC (about 19.91 billion US dollars). Grayscale reduced 668 BTC (worth about 42.06 million US dollars) and currently holds 272,661 BTC (about 17.17 billion US dollars). Ark ARKB had a net inflow of 117.2 million US dollars, and Bitwise BITB had a net inflow of 15.2 million US dollars.
On the other hand, the reduction in CPI has also made the macroeconomic situation more optimistic, and the Federal Reserve may consider whether to cut interest rates as early as July. Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, said that they believe that the Federal Reserve has "good reasons" to cut interest rates at the July meeting, but did not change their forecast that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. According to the latest unemployment and inflation data, a federal funds rate of 4% is appropriate, while it is currently 5.25%-5.5%. Therefore, it is expected that interest rate cuts will begin soon. The reasons for taking action in July include the volatility of monthly inflation, which may make the September rate cut difficult to explain if there is a temporary re-acceleration, and the undeniable motivation of the Federal Reserve to "avoid starting to cut interest rates in the last two months of the presidential campaign." Although this does not mean that the Federal Reserve cannot start cutting interest rates in September, it is indeed more appropriate in July.
Ethereum ETF also received good news. According to Decrypt, two sources familiar with the process of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirmed that the SEC required asset management companies to submit the final version of the registration statement for the spot Ethereum ETF by Wednesday, and the product is scheduled to be launched on July 23. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas first reported on Monday about the recent communication between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and asset management companies. The finalized registration statement should also include the management fees of each fund.
On the issue of how the issuance of an Ethereum ETF will affect Ethereum, most industry insiders choose to focus on the market value management of ETH. If the Ethereum ETF is issued, the market value of ETH may rebound significantly, breaking through the historical high of $4,867.60 set in November 2021. Of the total supply of ETH, less than 30% of ETH is involved in staking, and about 10% of ETH is locked in smart contracts, which may reduce the amount of new ETH available for ETFs to hold. Under such a supply and demand relationship, the market value of ETH may be pushed up. Some media reports also pointed out that due to the tight supply of ETH and weaker liquidity than BTC, the US dollars flowing into the Ethereum ETF may have a greater impact on the market value of ETH.
Currently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken through the key pressure level, which is also driven by the rise of the three major US stock indexes. The data of the currency circle itself is also bullish. The technical trend has changed the previous low-level fluctuations. At present, the operation is mainly bullish after the correction. In the short term, BTC focuses on the pressure near 65100.
In terms of targets, given the overall recovery of the market, the main focus is on gaining an oversold rebound. It is recommended to buy after a correction, and give priority to election concept targets, such as PEPE, PEOPLE, MAGA, TRUMP, etc. For bottom-fishing rebounds, it is recommended to pay attention to FLOKI, WIF, BONK, SATS, WLD, SAGA, and in terms of Ethereum ETF, it is recommended to pay attention to popular targets such as ENA, ALT, ETHFI, UNI, etc.
