Realized volatility for Bitcoin has historically been
elevated during bull markets and declines during periods
of reduced attention and adoption. The macro trend for
realized volatility can be seen to be lower over time.
During the 2017 bull market, rolling realized volatility over
three-month to one-year windows reached between
120% and 150% at the peak. The uptrend in 2023-24 has
now been in play for just over 18 months and realized
volatility has compressed to between 40% and 55%,
which is less than half of that seen in the prior two cycles.
This aligns with the shallower drawdown profile thus far
and speaks to an asset class that is growing in both size
and maturity.
BTC: Annualized Realized Volatility
