Macro data:
Yesterday, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve grew moderately as expected by the market. The core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month for the second consecutive month in July, the lowest monthly growth rate in more than two years, and the year-on-year growth rate accelerated slightly by 0.1 percentage point from June to 4.2%. However, personal consumption expenditures adjusted for inflation grew by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, the highest growth rate in six months.
Commentators said that the recently released data gave the market mixed feelings: on the one hand, the inflation index increased slightly month-on-month for two months, stimulating consumer spending growth and making it more likely that the US economy would avoid a recession; on the other hand, the resilience of the economy was a cause for concern, and the Fed had more reason to keep tightening in order to continue to reduce inflation. The market focus shifted to the heavyweight employment report to be released today, which is also the last non-farm payrolls data before the next Fed meeting.
After the release of Thursday's data, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing," continued to decline, while the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to interest rates, rebounded first. U.S. stocks turned downward in early trading; the U.S. dollar index extended its gains, breaking away from the two-week low set on Wednesday, and is set to close higher for the first time this week; U.S. stocks continued to rise, but the intraday gains faded, and major stock indexes fell at one point.
According to BlockBeats, on September 1, The Block reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said on Thursday that it would postpone the approval of seven spot Bitcoin ETF proposals because the agency is reviewing a recent round of application documents. The regulator said in a separate document that the decision deadline for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF will be extended to October 17, while the deadline for the Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund will be postponed to October 19. In addition, the decision deadline for the Bitwise Bitcoin ETP Trust Fund has also been postponed to October 16.
Market analysis:
Yesterday, Bitcoin fluctuated above 27,100 during the Asian and European sessions. It briefly hit 27,674 (touching 3-day MA10) from 7 to 8 p.m. and then quickly fell back. It fell below 27,000 during the U.S. session. After midnight, 4HMACD formed a dead cross and the market continued to fall back deeply. After that, it fell below 26,000. After SEC postponed the proposal of spot Bitcoin ETF, it undoubtedly sprinkled salt on the originally fragile market, with the lowest price dropping to 25,617. At 22:30 last night, Ten Years of Dreams predicted that Bitcoin would fall back to 26,500-26,700, but the market trend was indeed beyond expectations. The standard gate trend of the daily line caught the market off guard. The daily line kept switching between yin and yang, indicating that the current market trend is greatly affected by the news sentiment. Technically, there is indeed a need for a correction, but the excessive optimism and pessimism of market sentiment has undoubtedly increased market volatility. SEC’s attitude towards Bitcoin ETF has now become the sword of Damoris hanging over the currency circle.
It was indeed a bit early to intervene in long positions at the 26500 line yesterday. We should have waited and seen after the completion of the hourly and 4H lines. This is also something that Ten Years a Dream should reflect on. Just like the trend on August 29 when Bitcoin broke through 27000 and 28000 consecutively due to optimistic sentiment, the timing and points of Ten Years a Dream’s intervention in short positions were not very good (short positions were intervened at 27468 during the rise). This is indeed something we should reflect on.
Talking about the outlook for the future market, there is no need to be overly optimistic or overly pessimistic; even if the ETF is passed, don't expect a rebound to 40,000, and don't expect to see 20,000 just because of a temporary decline. The 3-day trend is bearish, with the upper pressure level of MA60 moving average at 28,050 and the lower support level of MA120 moving average at 23,850; the downward trend of the daily moving average system has eased, and the attached MACD golden cross is upward. After yesterday's deep adjustment, combined with the 4H and 12H trends, before the September interest rate decision, Bitcoin is estimated to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the range of 25,000-28,000. When it comes to trading strategies, trading rhythm is more important. When market expectations are strong, follow the market to eat a wave of more, but don't chase more; when market expectations are weak, eat a wave of shorts, but don't chase shorts.
There is an opportunity to bet on a rebound in short-term trading. You can enter long orders at the 25768-25968 line, with a stop loss at 25368 and a take profit at 26668-26868.
