1. Macroeconomic data: JOLTS job vacancies in the United States fell to the lowest in more than two years in July more than expected, and consumer confidence in the Conference Board fell significantly in August, all of which reduced the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates; after the data were released, the market became dovish on the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Paid Adjustment - Traders now see a 56% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in November, down from 75% on Tuesday. At the same time, swap contracts showed expectations for a Fed rate cut were brought forward to June from July. U.S. stocks rose for three consecutive days and closed at daily highs. The Dow rose nearly 300 points, the Nasdaq rose 1.7%, Tesla rose nearly 8%, Nvidia rose more than 4% to a new high, and the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved. Hopes surged, causing Coinbase to rise 15%. %. After the financial report, Pinduoduo rose by more than 15%, Tiger Brokers rose by more than 28%, and NIO fell by 14% before closing down by more than 1%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 16 basis points from its daily high, and the 10-year yield fell as much as 14 basis points. The U.S. dollar index fell below 104, the Japanese yen fell to 147 and hit a nine-and-a-half-month low before turning higher. The offshore RMB rose by more than 100 points to reach 7.28 yuan, and Bitcoin rose by 7% and hovered at US$28,000.

 

On Tuesday, August 29, Eastern Time, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in Washington announced the joint ruling of three judges, overturning the SEC's decision last year to reject the proposal, bringing digital currency asset management company Grayscale Investments LLC one step closer to launching a Bitcoin spot ETF. Media comments said that if Grayscale's Bitcoin spot is approved, it could be a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency industry, as it would allow the cryptocurrency industry to attract billions of dollars in investment from ordinary investors.

Last June, the SEC rejected Grayscale's application to convert its Bitcoin Trust Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Bitcoin spot ETF. The SEC believes that Grayscale's plan to list the Bitcoin spot ETF on NYSE Arca, a subsidiary of the New York Stock Exchange, is not sufficient to avoid fraud and market manipulation.

Grayscale soon said it was appealing the SEC, alleging that the SEC's decision discriminated against the company's products because the SEC had approved a similar Bitcoin futures ETF.

A recent ruling by a US judge means that the long-awaited Bitcoin spot ETF in the cryptocurrency circle is more likely to come out, and Bitcoin and related concept stocks have risen across the board.

2. Technical Analysis:

Weekly: On Tuesday, the US data was weak, and the yields of 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds fell. The market showed that the dollar fell and everything rose. The US Court of Appeals overturned the SEC's decision to reject Grayscale's application for the listing of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which helped BTC break through the 27,000 and 28,000 mark. Weekly market analysis: Yesterday, the market briefly broke through the weekly MA30 moving average of 27,389, and was under pressure from the weekly MA20 moving average of 28,251. The attached MACD indicator crosses downward (but is above the 0 axis), which is a deep correction of the June 24,700-31,850 rising market. At the weekly level, pay attention to the pressure of the MA10 moving average of 28,850, and pay attention to the support of 23,650 below.

Daily market analysis: After the market plummeted on August 17 and August 18, it bottomed out after dozens of days of fluctuations. Yesterday, it rose strongly by 6 points, with an amplitude of 8 points. The attached MACD indicator formed a golden cross below the 0 axis and pointed upward. The daily level fluctuated more, and the upper side paid attention to the pressure of 28380 (MA120 daily line).

12H, 4H market analysis: From the 12H moving average system, the current rebound is subject to the pressure of the MA60 moving average 27968. I am not optimistic about whether the market can continue to rise. It does not mean that if it rises, it will look at 30,000 or even 40,000, and if it falls, it will look at 20,000 and 18,000. The daily level has not stood above the 28,300 line. The overall market fluctuation range is temporarily set at 23,500-28,300. 4H broke through the MA120 moving average 27,350 yesterday, and continued the upward trend to 28,168. Pay attention to the gains and losses of the 27,300 line.

Operation suggestions from Wednesday to Friday: (large band)

Short at 27868-28088, stop loss at 28468, take profit at 26868

The market is risky and investment advice is for reference only.

3. Focus:

The main line of the Fed's interest rate hike. Including the inflation data released on Thursday and the non-farm data on Friday, will initially set the tone for whether the Fed will further raise interest rates.