Just now, the German government address transferred 1,000 BTC, of which 500 were transferred to an unknown address, and the remaining 500 were transferred to Bitstam and Coinbas exchanges.
Currently, there are still 38,800 BTC in the German address. If calculated at a rate of 500 per day, the German government can still sell for 77 days.
However, through analysis, these sell-offs are not that serious.
(1) The amount of sell-off is not large
According to CryptoQuant data, the total capital inflow into the BTC market has exceeded US$224 billion since 2023.
In the past two weeks, addresses related to the US and German governments have transferred a total of more than US$737 million worth of BTC to exchanges.
This only accounts for 3% of the total inflow.
(2) Overestimation of market sentiment
Most people have no idea of the volume of these government sell-offs, and people usually believe that the government's sell-offs may hide some policy factors. Therefore, in the eyes of retail investors, the government's sell-offs are like the sky falling.
(3) Wrong valuation method
For such volatile assets, we should use the "realized market value" calculation method to judge its selling pressure.
Different from directly calculating with the current price, the realized market value is determined by considering the price of each BTC at the last time it moved. This can reduce the impact of the market and reflect the real inflow of funds.
For example: the 500 BTC sold earlier, the current BTC price is 5.8w. If the traditional market value is calculated, the selling volume is 29 millionw. According to the realized market value calculation, the BTC price at the time of the sell-off was 5.58w, and the selling volume is 2,790w.
