The Etf Btc data is listed again and analyzed briefly.

Data source Thanks to @Phyrex_Ni for providing the shared version of the basic data.

1. Since the opening of Etf3.26, I estimated that the net inflow was around US$7.4 billion to US$7.9 billion.

2.3.26BTC price 71565.

3.The current price is 57195.

$BTC

4. Theoretically, the net inflow should have increased with at least US$7.4 billion, but it has now fallen by 25 percent and at most by 33%.

5. That is to say, the net outflow is far more than 10 billion.

6. BTC transactions and prices are probably still manipulated by market makers or jointly manipulated by market makers.

The question is, who took the net outflow of funds? I thought about this question for a long time, but I don’t have the ability to collect too much basic data. I can only analyze it logically.

The miners must have taken a lot. Mentougou is currently only known to have dumped a portion of it, and it seems that Germany has not spent all its money yet?

So the dealer must have shipped a lot of goods.

Even if all the German wallets were taken out, the calculation at that time was only 2.7 billion US dollars, which was equivalent to 4/1 of the daily trading volume. The impact was significant, but not that big.

It's more like the banker taking advantage of the situation to sell.

Etf’s financial help in pushing Btc to new highs is almost zero. The total inflow in 3 months is less than Btc’s daily trading volume.

In other words, at least in this round, BTC ETF is just like a cheerleading team, that is, shouting encouragement, which has some emotional value.

So the conclusion is that it should continue to fall and there is no bottom yet.

When it comes to execution, I don’t short, I only look for opportunities to go long.

A few days ago, I said 43,000 is impossible, but 53,000 is possible. I almost perfectly predicted the big drop on Friday. I was really accurate in this wave.

Without data support, I estimate the bottom to be between 45,000 and 49,000.

The high probability is around 49,000, and the low probability is 45,000.

$BTC #