The price trend of Bitcoin is affected by a combination of factors, making it difficult to accurately predict. Some common influencing factors include:

• Technical analysis: By studying the historical price trend, trading volume and other related indicators of Bitcoin, the future price trend can be predicted. Commonly used technical analysis tools include moving average, relative strength index, MACD, etc.

• Fundamental analysis: The value of Bitcoin will be affected by factors such as market demand, project background, laws and regulations. For example, the halving of Bitcoin mining rewards may have an impact on the long-term price of Bitcoin. According to the Bitcoin protocol, its total supply is 21 million, and the mining reward will be reduced by half approximately every four years, which helps maintain the scarcity value of Bitcoin. In April 2024, the mining reward dropped again to 3.125.

• Market supply and demand relationship: When there are more buy orders than sell orders for Bitcoin in the market, the price tends to rise; conversely, when there are more sell orders than buy orders, the price may fall.

• Macroeconomic conditions: Macroeconomic factors such as the global economic situation and changes in policies and regulations also have a certain impact on the price of Bitcoin. For example, the Fed's policies may affect investors' attitudes toward risky assets.

• Market sentiment and expectations: Investors' sentiment and expectations of the future price of Bitcoin will drive prices up and down. Optimism may drive prices up, while pessimism may cause prices to fall. Market sentiment is often affected by news, events, market hot spots and other factors.

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Different analysts and institutions may have different views and predictions. For example, the "2024 Second Half Outlook Report" released by digital asset data company CCData on July 2 believes that Bitcoin has not yet reached the top of the current appreciation cycle and may hit a new historical high this year. Deng Jianpeng, a professor at the School of Law of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $50,000 and $70,000 this year. The core influencing factors are the US interest rate cut schedule, followed by the trading amount of US Bitcoin ETFs.

It should be noted that the Bitcoin market has high risk and volatility.