The hype effect of Bitcoin is similar to the coronavirus epidemic, which has to be infected once, but hype cannot last long in history. A few days ago, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it had approved the listing of 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the first time.
Well, that evening, Ray was on a business trip in Hong Kong, and he talked about some theoretical issues with a few friends. We discussed, could Bitcoin really rise to $100,000 per coin in the near future?
Or did it finally collapse? Then one of my friends analyzed the past Bitcoin transaction data and found the commonality of transactions, that is, the law of market sentiment. He believed that the market sentiment reflects human nature. If you grasp human nature, you can grasp the general direction of the market. So from this perspective, 100,000 is no problem.
Another friend analyzed from the perspective of the value of Bitcoin. He observed the major developments in the past 10 years and summed it up in one sentence: the hype effect of Bitcoin, like the epidemic, will infect everyone.
But historically, hype cannot last long. So, when people are infected with the speculative sentiment and start to see what Bitcoin is really useful for, the true value of Bitcoin will be reflected. If it has no real application value, Bitcoin will face a collapse.
Some friends also mentioned that can the medical value of Bitcoin be compared to gold? In other words, can Bitcoin be used as a reserve asset if gold is used? I think this question mainly depends on how the sovereign government views Bitcoin, whether Bitcoin will be used as a currency anchor, and whether there is a consensus on gold as a general equivalent.
It can be said that it was formed by the people of the world over thousands of years. So from a historical perspective, the value tends to be stable. However, based on 10 years of observation of Bitcoin, the price fluctuations are too large. So if you regard it as a general equivalent or reserve asset, the time is too short and it is difficult to estimate.
Finally, a senior friend said that Bitcoin has driven the entire virtual currency market for more than a decade, so the most valuable application scenario is the stable currency payment tool, mainly USDT, which is equivalent to occupying part of the US dollar market, so the development of stable currency may be the most important underlying factor for your majesty.
But I think from a legal perspective, there are three major obstacles to the development of stablecoins.
The first major obstacle is that as long as a country has a central government, the dominance of currency basically lies with the national government. Therefore, stablecoins challenge the government's monetary sovereignty, so this obstacle cannot be ignored.
Second, most of the people who buy stablecoins are involved in money laundering, which means they have an urgent need to launder money. This is also an obstacle to the prosperity of stablecoins.
Third, some people buy stablecoins for their own purposes, but this is not allowed among investors subject to foreign exchange controls. So no one can say whether these three obstacles will kill the future of stablecoins.
Therefore, no one can say whether Bitcoin will rise to $100,000, or collapse, or finally reach a price point where it becomes relatively stable like gold.
