There have been many events that have an impact on interest rate cuts in recent times. At this time, many things that seem to have an impact on interest rate cuts are becoming increasingly limited. Many friends like to pay attention to the speeches of voting committee members, but it is no longer important at this moment. After the election, economic data is no longer the most important, and bank stress tests are extremely important. In particular, the Jingpce data released today has a lower priority in the dimension of economic data, and its impact is also minimal. In addition to having no major impact on the macro market, BTC does not need to be paid too much attention.
Yesterday I published an article specifically explaining Bowman's style. He has been talking about raising interest rates all day long and has never mentioned lowering interest rates. He is the most hawkish of the twelve voting members. In addition, the factional division of these voting members is relatively balanced, with a relatively balanced number of hawks and doves. This is also normal. Only by maintaining a balance can the market be unpredictable. From January to June this year, you can still pay attention to the speeches of these people, because they will guide the dot plot in June. Apart from this, only the speeches of Powell and New York Fed President Williams are of practical significance. The others are interspersed between economic data to serve as a guide for planning.
June is almost over. Apart from the speeches of Bob and Williams, there is no need to pay attention to the speeches of others. No need to make a fuss about any further speeches. After June, we will enter the election, which is the main focus. In addition, economic data is the second priority. The most important thing is the bank stress test, which is what the Americans really care about. After all, it is the money bag of Wall Street. If the pressure is extremely high, economic data and the speeches of voting committee members will become tools to guide the market.
The last bank stress test was yesterday. Let me briefly tell you about the nature of this test. This is to deduce the worst outcome from the current situation, and then put the bank's current operating conditions on the worst outcome to see if it can still operate normally. To put it bluntly, it is to see whether the bank's assets are sufficient to continue operating in an economic recession. If the test results show that the bank can still maintain sufficient operating funds in extreme cases, then stock repurchases and shareholder dividends will be guaranteed. Those who really have asset influence in the market will be stabilized. Pressure will be released.
The test mainly includes two parts. The first is the capital adequacy ratio in Basel III, the test of Tier 1 capital and Tier 2 capital. Tier 1 capital includes core and other. The focus is on core Tier 1 capital. To put it simply, it is to see whether the capital is sufficient for operation in an economic recession. The second is the leverage ratio and supplementary leverage ratio, which are mainly based on leverage.
The testing method mainly focuses on artificially deduce extreme economic conditions through the current situation. I will just mention a few, which are also the economic data that most people are concerned about this year. The peak of real GDP fell by 8.5%, the unemployment rate directly reached 10%, the stock price plummeted by 55%, and the three-month Treasury yield was 0%. These are some of the items conducted yesterday. These are some of the items conducted yesterday. In this extreme situation, both the first and second items must meet the standards.
Let's talk about the results directly. The second one is not very critical, but the capital adequacy ratio is more critical. According to the Basel III Agreement, total capital needs to reach 8%, Tier 1 capital needs to reach 6%, and core Tier 1 capital needs to reach 4.5% to meet the standards. For globally important banks such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, an additional 1% of additional strength is required. This year's test results are all around 10%. This proves that the current situation is still okay, and the test results are still okay. It's just not as sufficient as last year's test results, which have basically declined by about 3%.
So this year's results can only be said to barely pass the test, but they are not as generous as in the previous two years. Speaking of this, some friends want to know the impact of interest rate cuts. Do you remember that some banks in the United States went bankrupt last year? The core factor is that the interest rate hike was too fast, which caused a large amount of book gains and losses in the bonds allocated by banks in the early stage of the interest rate hike. I won't do scientific popularization here. You can just search why interest rate hikes will cause bond losses. To put it bluntly, interest rate hikes will lead to a series of pressures such as asset depreciation and increased expenditures of banks. It's the same reason that interest rate hikes will shrink the value of BTC.
The solution to the bank failure mentioned above is for the big banks to buy them out. So maybe the Americans have already prepared to use small banks to support the big banks in their tough battle this year.
Therefore, the impact of bank pressure on interest rate cuts has become extremely important, especially after the June election. Capital strength is extremely important both in the election and in terms of operational pressure. The situation of large banks directly affects Wall Street's pocketbook. After all, capital is everything in the United States. #美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率增幅创2021年3月以来新低 #以太坊ETF批准预期
