Someone asked what the impact of Bowman's speech yesterday was and whether there would be no rate cut this year. I would like to say that there is no need to have such an idea. Bowman's speeches have always been hawkish.
The division of factions among the directors of the Federal Reserve is for better expectation management. What is expectation management? It is to strictly control the speeches of various factions to convey signals and influence to the market. In addition, it is mixed in between different economic data to reconcile yin and yang, or directly guide the market.
If you don't believe me, I summarized Bowman's speeches from January to June this year, and it became clear at a glance. He never mentioned interest rate cuts from beginning to end.
January: If inflation rebounds, I still support raising rates
February: It depends on inflation data. It is too early to start cutting interest rates.
March: It is not time to cut interest rates yet. If inflation reverses, we are willing to continue to raise interest rates.
April: It is not yet time to cut interest rates. If inflation remains high, it is still possible to raise interest rates
May: Given high inflation, I don’t expect any rate cuts this year
June: Still willing to raise rates if progress in reducing inflation falters
So don't pay attention to what she said. For what she said, just pay attention to whether it is a strong hawk or a weak hawk. I don't think it is a strong hawk this month. Although the dot chart occasionally verifies these remarks, it is more of an adjustment. Just like this month's watered-down non-agricultural data, this is an example happening right in front of us. #以太坊ETF批准预期
