$BTC
Weak macroeconomic data for Bitcoin bulls favors more aggressive rate cuts and monetary stimulus from the Fed and the Treasury.
It’s been two months since the Bitcoin halving, which may explain why 57% of bullish bets are on prices of $70,000 or higher. But in reality, the market has been weak over the past two weeks, making these call (buy) options essentially worthless. If Bitcoin stays around $61,500 at 8:00 AM (UTC) on June 28, the right to buy BTC at $62,000 and $64,000 will not expire. Similarly, put (sell) options at $58,000 and $60,000 will also expire.
Currently, Deribit is the absolute market leader for June BTC options, with a total open interest of $6.65 billion. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which came in second, had $1.15 billion in total open interest, followed by OKX at $735 million and Binance at $520 million. Overall, BTC call and put options totaled $9.25 billion on June 28, which is a respectable number, but also inflated by an overabundance of call options.
Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price trend. The availability of call and put options contracts on June 28 depends on the settlement price.
Between $57,000 and $60,000: 660 calls and 14,850 puts. Net result: $820 million in profit on put (sell) options.
Between $60,000 and $62,000: 3,910 calls and 11,140 puts. Net result put (sell) option profit of $430 million.
Between $62,000 and $64,000: 5,220 calls and 8,690 puts. Net result put (sell) option profit of $215 million.
Between $64,000 and $66,000: 6,880 calls and 6,940 puts. The result is roughly balanced between calls and puts.
In short, Bitcoin bulls desperately need to maintain the $60,000 support level before the June 28 expiration to avoid an 8.$200 million potential situation