🎰 You can try to take $1 billion from Kalshi if you correctly predict the outcomes of all 63 NCAA playoff games (March Madness).

Sounds like madness — the probability is roughly 1 in 9×10¹⁵. Practically zero.

But the market loves these kinds of stories. In 2025, a Warren Buffett fund employee almost pulled off the impossible — he got 44 out of 45 games right in a similar contest and took home $1 million. The odds there were estimated at about 1 in 7×10¹¹.

For those who don’t guess all 63 correctly, there’s a consolation prize of $1 million — it goes to the participant with the best overall result.

Formally, it’s almost impossible. But as practice shows, sometimes it’s enough just to be closer to the chaos than everyone else.