$NEIRO | How U.S. Jobs Data Is Shaping Fed Rate-Cut Expectations
📊 Mixed Jobs Data Is Blurring the Fed’s Outlook
The latest U.S. labor data paints a conflicted picture. December 2025 job growth came in far weaker than expected—around 50,000 new jobs—yet the unemployment rate dipped to ~4.4%.
This suggests hiring momentum is slowing, but the labor market is not breaking down.
Adding to the uncertainty, several economic releases were delayed or revised due to fallout from prior government shutdowns, making it harder for the Fed to see the true state of employment.
🏦 What This Means for Rate Cuts
Fed policymakers are turning more cautious:
With no clear deterioration in employment, the Fed is unlikely to rush into cuts.
Markets are now pricing in a lower probability of near-term easing.
Officials have openly said delayed or incomplete data “complicates” policy decisions.
As a result, rate cuts once expected in late 2025 or early 2026 may now be pushed further out, with economists calling the decision a “very close call.”
💡 Market Reaction
This uncertainty has fueled volatility across stocks, bonds, and risk assets, as traders recalibrate expectations for when monetary easing will actually begin.
📌 Bottom Line
• Job growth weaker, but unemployment still resilient
• Labor market not clearly deteriorating
• Fed likely to hold rates steady for now
• Rate cuts may be delayed until clearer, more reliable data emerges—possibly later in 2026
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