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🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Jorge_75314:
6
Ya salió para el regalo de san valentin 😅🍀 después vuelvo a entrar #btc
Nakup
BTCUSDT
Trajne ter. pog.
Zaprto
Dobiček/izguba
+6171,93USDT
Crypto Orochi:
biene en nuevo año a 70 short mala idea
这么着急抄底现货这么上头吗
只是时机还没到，大饼很可能会腰斩一次
就算不腰斩再跌三四十个点(btc)是肯定的
其他主流山寨就不用说了吧
一损俱损的道理还看不明白玩个锤子
时间问题这是从大周期来看，看着吧
#btc
只是时机还没到，大饼很可能会腰斩一次
就算不腰斩再跌三四十个点(btc)是肯定的
其他主流山寨就不用说了吧
一损俱损的道理还看不明白玩个锤子
时间问题这是从大周期来看，看着吧
#btc
Evie Hardy th9E:
抄底还太早
Мои друзья, принял важное решение. Провели коллективный созвон, разобрали структуру рынка и текущую конъюнктуру — по биткоину сохраняется лонговый сценарий. На этом фоне я принял решение усилить позицию.
Зашёл объёмом больше обычного — делаю так редко, но сейчас уровень уверенности максимально высокий, поэтому не могу скрывать, что увеличиваю риск.
Работаю без стоп-лосса — возможны манипуляции, но капитал для управления позицией и контроля риска у меня всегда в резерве. Действуем по плану.
$BTC #btc
Зашёл объёмом больше обычного — делаю так редко, но сейчас уровень уверенности максимально высокий, поэтому не могу скрывать, что увеличиваю риск.
Работаю без стоп-лосса — возможны манипуляции, но капитал для управления позицией и контроля риска у меня всегда в резерве. Действуем по плану.
$BTC #btc
回顧13日凌晨三點的btc歷史：
在凌晨三點開始提到空軍主力要擴大平倉空單。
並且在18點的文章提到要注意空單平倉已經平掉大部分了，後續剩餘的空單會故意利用市價平空來影響價格。
現在已經看到btc價格已經快速拉了四千點。
文章時區為UTC+8
#btc $BTC
在凌晨三點開始提到空軍主力要擴大平倉空單。
並且在18點的文章提到要注意空單平倉已經平掉大部分了，後續剩餘的空單會故意利用市價平空來影響價格。
現在已經看到btc價格已經快速拉了四千點。
文章時區為UTC+8
#btc $BTC
回顧btc在1月26日至今日2月13日以來的歷史：
從1月26日開始的文章提到了關注30日事件空，當時可見的影響暫時推測是美國政府關門。
後來在28日開始提到在建高點了，要準備事件空的到來，後續開始下衝。
在下衝後，看到了新聞，原來是新上任美聯儲主席的關係所導致。
這樣的情況延續到今日，再度看到了14日美國政府可能要再關門的情況，然而基於上述可理解到，事件發生前都是發生前得知事件時間，而不是發生後隨意找事匹配。
因此歷史回顧證實，不是發生後才找事件發生時間。因此這比發生後再找事件卻不一定找的正確更為相符。
由此對照接下來美國政府可能關門的消息，可知，先前的下行實質來自於新上任美聯儲主席，但有很多人不知道，也很多人只會專注於自己認為重要而將下跌認定為政府關門。
因此現在可知，這群人並非主力。而這群非主力等於小投機群。
因此可知在接下來美國政府將關閉的新聞，會帶來一群散戶做空，而不像上一次的主力打壓。
看來，這會是一次難得的一次空軍主力換手機會。
#NFA $BTC
#BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
從1月26日開始的文章提到了關注30日事件空，當時可見的影響暫時推測是美國政府關門。
後來在28日開始提到在建高點了，要準備事件空的到來，後續開始下衝。
在下衝後，看到了新聞，原來是新上任美聯儲主席的關係所導致。
這樣的情況延續到今日，再度看到了14日美國政府可能要再關門的情況，然而基於上述可理解到，事件發生前都是發生前得知事件時間，而不是發生後隨意找事匹配。
因此歷史回顧證實，不是發生後才找事件發生時間。因此這比發生後再找事件卻不一定找的正確更為相符。
由此對照接下來美國政府可能關門的消息，可知，先前的下行實質來自於新上任美聯儲主席，但有很多人不知道，也很多人只會專注於自己認為重要而將下跌認定為政府關門。
因此現在可知，這群人並非主力。而這群非主力等於小投機群。
因此可知在接下來美國政府將關閉的新聞，會帶來一群散戶做空，而不像上一次的主力打壓。
看來，這會是一次難得的一次空軍主力換手機會。
#NFA $BTC
#BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$BTC 2.13观点：
昨天这波上涨其实已经埋下隐患。从交易量角度可以看到，价格持续抬升，但成交量始终未能有效放大，属于典型的缩量上涨。上涨没有量能支撑，就像体力不足却硬撑着往前走，持续性往往有限。
随后价格在 68400 一带遇阻，直接走出看跌吞没形态。该位置本身就是前高压力区，既未放量突破，又出现明确的顶部信号，这种结构不做空确实缺乏逻辑支撑。原本预期会回踩看涨旗形上边界后再选择方向，但市场并未给出盘整过程，而是直接跌回旗形内部，并且跌破前低，创出新低。好在目前仍未有效跌破旗形结构，一旦旗形失守，大概率将再次回踩 60000 区域。
当前走势的核心仍然围绕几个关键位展开：
68400 是强压力位，不突破难言趋势性上涨。
66585 若有效突破，则重新进入 66585–68400 区间震荡。
若始终无法站稳 66585，则大概率维持 66585–64771 区间震荡。
64771 一旦跌破，跌幅将进一步扩大。
操作参考
• 带量突破 66529，右侧追多。
• 跌破 66033 且反抽无法收回，右侧追空。
• 必须严格带止损。
小级别结构：
1小时级别
站稳 66698，上看 68416–69968
无法站稳 66698，难以持续上涨
4小时级别
跌破 65656，下看 64569–63586
压力与支撑
上方压力：66698 – 68416 – 69968
下方支撑：65868 – 65172 – 64166
当前就是典型的区间选择方向阶段，关键看量能配合和关键位得失。方向未明之前，耐心等待确认信号，比提前预判更重要。$BTC
#BTC走势分析 #btc #币安热门推荐
昨天这波上涨其实已经埋下隐患。从交易量角度可以看到，价格持续抬升，但成交量始终未能有效放大，属于典型的缩量上涨。上涨没有量能支撑，就像体力不足却硬撑着往前走，持续性往往有限。
随后价格在 68400 一带遇阻，直接走出看跌吞没形态。该位置本身就是前高压力区，既未放量突破，又出现明确的顶部信号，这种结构不做空确实缺乏逻辑支撑。原本预期会回踩看涨旗形上边界后再选择方向，但市场并未给出盘整过程，而是直接跌回旗形内部，并且跌破前低，创出新低。好在目前仍未有效跌破旗形结构，一旦旗形失守，大概率将再次回踩 60000 区域。
当前走势的核心仍然围绕几个关键位展开：
68400 是强压力位，不突破难言趋势性上涨。
66585 若有效突破，则重新进入 66585–68400 区间震荡。
若始终无法站稳 66585，则大概率维持 66585–64771 区间震荡。
64771 一旦跌破，跌幅将进一步扩大。
操作参考
• 带量突破 66529，右侧追多。
• 跌破 66033 且反抽无法收回，右侧追空。
• 必须严格带止损。
小级别结构：
1小时级别
站稳 66698，上看 68416–69968
无法站稳 66698，难以持续上涨
4小时级别
跌破 65656，下看 64569–63586
压力与支撑
上方压力：66698 – 68416 – 69968
下方支撑：65868 – 65172 – 64166
当前就是典型的区间选择方向阶段，关键看量能配合和关键位得失。方向未明之前，耐心等待确认信号，比提前预判更重要。$BTC
#BTC走势分析 #btc #币安热门推荐
Extreme Fear Critical Levels, All Eyes on the BTC Weekly Close🚨
BTC is hovering near $67.6K, and sentiment has shifted decisively into Extreme Fear. Yet price hasn’t collapsed. That divergence matters. When fear spikes but structure holds, the market is usually in one of two phases:
1. Late stage distribution before a breakdown
2. Final leverage washout before reversal
The weekly close will decide which.
📉 The Bearish Case: Weekly Close Below $60K
For bitcoin to close under $60K, three things likely need to happen:
1. A decisive loss of the $64K–$65K demand zone
2. Rising sell side volume into the weekend
3. Derivatives funding flipping deeply negative with sustained open interest expansion
A break below $60K would confirm a weekly lower low and shift structure into medium term bearish continuation. That opens liquidity pockets in the mid-$50Ks, where prior consolidation occurred. But right now, that breakdown hasn’t happened.
📈 The Bullish Case: Weekly Reclaim Above $70K
The more interesting scenario is a push back above $70K before weekly settlement. Why?
1. $70K is both psychological resistance and a structural pivot
2. A weekly close above it invalidates the recent breakdown attempt
3. It would mark a reclaim of the prior range high
Technically, BTC is compressing between $64K support and $70K resistance. Compression in high fear environments often resolves violently. If bulls defend $65K and force a short squeeze into the close, $70K+ becomes realistic.
So Which Is More Likely?
A weekly close above $60K is highly probable given current structure.
2. A close above $70K is possible but requires momentum expansion.
3. A close below $60K would require fresh downside catalysts and sustained selling pressure (not currently evident).
$BTC
#btc
1. Late stage distribution before a breakdown
2. Final leverage washout before reversal
The weekly close will decide which.
📉 The Bearish Case: Weekly Close Below $60K
For bitcoin to close under $60K, three things likely need to happen:
1. A decisive loss of the $64K–$65K demand zone
2. Rising sell side volume into the weekend
3. Derivatives funding flipping deeply negative with sustained open interest expansion
A break below $60K would confirm a weekly lower low and shift structure into medium term bearish continuation. That opens liquidity pockets in the mid-$50Ks, where prior consolidation occurred. But right now, that breakdown hasn’t happened.
📈 The Bullish Case: Weekly Reclaim Above $70K
The more interesting scenario is a push back above $70K before weekly settlement. Why?
1. $70K is both psychological resistance and a structural pivot
2. A weekly close above it invalidates the recent breakdown attempt
3. It would mark a reclaim of the prior range high
Technically, BTC is compressing between $64K support and $70K resistance. Compression in high fear environments often resolves violently. If bulls defend $65K and force a short squeeze into the close, $70K+ becomes realistic.
So Which Is More Likely?
A weekly close above $60K is highly probable given current structure.
2. A close above $70K is possible but requires momentum expansion.
3. A close below $60K would require fresh downside catalysts and sustained selling pressure (not currently evident).
$BTC
#btc
On BTC/USDT I see a strong bounce from 65k back to 69k
For me, this is the key level, if BTC reclaims and holds above it, I’d expect continuation toward 70.5k+. If it gets rejected, I’d treat this as just a relief rally and watch for another pullback.
#btc #crypto #Write2Earn $BTC
For me, this is the key level, if BTC reclaims and holds above it, I’d expect continuation toward 70.5k+. If it gets rejected, I’d treat this as just a relief rally and watch for another pullback.
#btc #crypto #Write2Earn $BTC
الحاقاً لمنشورنا السابق
تم الوصول الى الأهداف النهائية
وتم التأكيد على دخولنا في الـ Bear market
بعد اغلاق البتكوين اسفل الـ 100000$
يجب المحافظة حالياً على رقم 62000$
وعدم الإغلاق اسفله لمدة اسبوع
حالياً البتكوين يتجه الى مناطق 85000$ - 90000$
لإعادة الإختبار ثم الاتجاه الى مناطق الـ 40000$
وسوف يكون هذا القاع الأخير بعد الإنطلاقة الى القمة 200000$
بالتوفيق للجميع
#btc
تم الوصول الى الأهداف النهائية
وتم التأكيد على دخولنا في الـ Bear market
بعد اغلاق البتكوين اسفل الـ 100000$
يجب المحافظة حالياً على رقم 62000$
وعدم الإغلاق اسفله لمدة اسبوع
حالياً البتكوين يتجه الى مناطق 85000$ - 90000$
لإعادة الإختبار ثم الاتجاه الى مناطق الـ 40000$
وسوف يكون هذا القاع الأخير بعد الإنطلاقة الى القمة 200000$
بالتوفيق للجميع
#btc
mogi:
كم شهر لازم يستمر
#eth #sol #btc илея для шорта локального, но очень осторожно. Все три монетки чуть не дошли. Биток могут 67500-68500 забросить… хотел дать со стопами расклад, но там по 3% движа поэтому просто графиками скинул. Соль 81.33-83.00 могут дать. Эфир 1980-2000.
Лучше в этих диапазонах входить и стоп ща них прятать. В 15:30 по Киеву и в 16:30 Мск сакроданные по инфляции - самые волатильные данные обычно. Торгуйте осторожно. Этот
больше под скальп идея.
Лучше в этих диапазонах входить и стоп ща них прятать. В 15:30 по Киеву и в 16:30 Мск сакроданные по инфляции - самые волатильные данные обычно. Торгуйте осторожно. Этот
больше под скальп идея.
📉 Short-Term (next weeks)
• Bitcoin has been weak and volatile, trading below key levels like ~$66,000–$70,000, and facing selling pressure. �
• Some analysts warn BTC could slide toward ~$50,000 before stabilizing. �
• Market sentiment is cautious, with risk-off conditions impacting prices. �
Barron's
CoinDesk
The Economic Times
📈 Mid-Term (next months)
• Technical models show possible buy signals if BTC holds key supports, but uncertainty remains. (General market context)
• Prices are consolidating as traders prepare for the next directional move. �
The Economic Times
📊 Institutional View
• Some forecasts still see higher targets later in the year if demand returns and ETFs gain traction. �
• Others are more conservative, expecting continued sideways or choppy price action. �
CoinGecko
CoinGecko
💡 Summary: Bitcoin’s near-term trend is currently bearish to neutral with possible pulls toward lower support levels, but medium-to-longer-term outlooks remain varied — ranging from sideways consolidation to potential rallies if institutional demand and ETF flows improve. $BTC #BTC #BTC走势分析 #btc #BTCVSGOLD
• Bitcoin has been weak and volatile, trading below key levels like ~$66,000–$70,000, and facing selling pressure. �
• Some analysts warn BTC could slide toward ~$50,000 before stabilizing. �
• Market sentiment is cautious, with risk-off conditions impacting prices. �
Barron's
CoinDesk
The Economic Times
📈 Mid-Term (next months)
• Technical models show possible buy signals if BTC holds key supports, but uncertainty remains. (General market context)
• Prices are consolidating as traders prepare for the next directional move. �
The Economic Times
📊 Institutional View
• Some forecasts still see higher targets later in the year if demand returns and ETFs gain traction. �
• Others are more conservative, expecting continued sideways or choppy price action. �
CoinGecko
CoinGecko
💡 Summary: Bitcoin’s near-term trend is currently bearish to neutral with possible pulls toward lower support levels, but medium-to-longer-term outlooks remain varied — ranging from sideways consolidation to potential rallies if institutional demand and ETF flows improve. $BTC #BTC #BTC走势分析 #btc #BTCVSGOLD
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