According to BlockBeats, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a slight downward shift in the implied baseline policy path based on option prices, suggesting the possibility of one to two rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points. This expectation is only slightly higher than the forecast during the March FOMC meeting. The probability distribution of year-end rates implied by options has shifted left, highlighting increased downside risks.
The futures market reflects a more significant adjustment in the expected policy path, implying approximately three rate cuts before the year's end, as market perceptions of policy rate downside risks intensify. Meanwhile, the median baseline rate path from market expectation surveys shows little change, still indicating two to three rate cuts this year. However, the survey notes that there is growing divergence among respondents regarding the most likely policy path.