This Friday, June 28, Bitcoin options worth over $14 billion are set to expire on Deribit. This represents one of the largest quarterly settlements of the year, and markets are bracing for increased volatility.
A total of 141,271 option contracts are set to expire, with over 40% of Deribit’s open interest tied to this batch. Since each Deribit option represents one BTC, the total notional value exceeds $14 billion based on the current Bitcoin price of around $107,300.
Put/Call Ratio Rising – But It's Not Purely Bearish
Traders are leaning more heavily toward put options ahead of expiry, pushing the open interest put/call ratio down to 0.72. At first glance, this might appear to be a bearish signal.
However, according to Lin Chen, Head of Business Development for Asia at Deribit, the interpretation isn’t so straightforward. Much of the put option activity is related to cash-secured put strategies, where investors sell puts while holding enough capital to buy BTC if prices fall and the options are exercised.
This method allows investors to collect premiums in exchange for a willingness to buy Bitcoin at a discount—more of a yield-generation play than a purely bearish bet.
Calls Dominate in Numbers, But Most Are Likely to Expire Worthless
Of the total options expiring, approximately 82,000 are calls, making them the majority. However, most of these are out of the money and expected to expire worthless.
According to Deribit, only about 20% of call options are currently in the money, with strike prices below the spot price. Many of the profitable positions were established during the bull cycle from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025.
Some holders are already locking in gains, while others are rolling positions into futures contracts—both actions that can increase short-term market volatility.
Narrow Price Range, Max Pain Estimated at $102K
Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $106,000 and $107,500, with traders watching closely. The so-called “max pain” level—the price where the greatest number of option buyers would suffer losses—is estimated at $102,000.
Contracts with extreme strike prices are unlikely to be exercised. For instance, call options at $300,000 have large open interest but reflect overly optimistic bets that haven’t materialized.
Deribit offers a wide range of strike intervals—from $50 to $10,000, giving traders many hedging and speculative choices.
Traders Use Straddles, Market Signals Neutral Expectations
According to market maker Wintermute, traders are currently selling straddles, a strategy that benefits from low volatility. Specifically, they’re writing call options near $105,000 and shorting put options around $100,000.
“Price flows are leaning neutral, with traders selling straddles and writing calls around $105K and puts at $100K—indicating expectations of a tight trading range ahead of expiry,” Wintermute’s OTC desk stated.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin remains locked in a horizontal channel, with traders waiting for a decisive breakout up or down.
🔍 Summary:
🔹 $14 billion worth of BTC options expire on June 28
🔹 Put/call ratio is rising but driven by conservative yield strategies
🔹 Most calls are out of the money
🔹 Max pain is estimated at $102,000
🔹 Market volatility expected to increase, but traders currently betting on sideways movement
#bitcoin , #cryptooptions , #CryptoVolatility , #CryptoMarkets , #BTC
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