Here's my plan for now.
There are both positive and negative news that can greatly affect my plan, so take it with a grain of salt and use it mostly as food for thought.
War News:
- US involvement, check ✅️
- Bomb nuclear facilities, check ✅️
- Close Hormuz strait, almost a check ☑️
- Hit on US bases, not priced-in, could happen (negative 👎)
- War escalation, not priced-in, could happen (negative 👎)
- Iran leadership capitulation or regime change, not priced-in, could happen (positive 👍)
Macro news:
- 2x FED members open to change of monetary policy and/or rate cuts. Nothing official yet, just comments.
- One BBB Act likely to pass. It includes spending and tax cuts.
TA/Charts:
- Weekly closed below previous Weekly Close ATH (bearish 🐻)
- Daily closed confirming a lower-low in daily structure (bearish 🐻)
- LTF; 98-100 local support. 102.7 local resistance. Below 98 -> 93s-95s. Above 102.7 -> Short Squeeze towards 104.7-106.5
Plan:
- For now, slowly build some spot positions around the lows. Sell the bearish retest at 104.7-106.5.
- If situation is still shitty then expect new lows (93-95), buy them and sell into the next short Squeeze. Repeat until end of summer. It will look something like that; 98->105, 93->101, then a slow reversal.
- If situation resolves positively, then 102.8 should become our new support for a time-based bottom. Once the time-based bottom is in, we'll move towards 112k+
Hope this helps you build some kind of Thesis and Perspective. 🙏