Em retrospectiva, ficar vendido em todas as moedas quando aq | beast_ico no Binance Square

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Em retrospectiva, ficar vendido em todas as moedas quando aquele repórter fez a pergunta sobre o TACO foi a posição mais óbvia de todo o mês

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So apparently Loud launched a couple hours after I went to sleep? Looking at the chart it’s still basically a 100x for everyone who participated even if they weren’t spamming the refresh button at launch to sell…so yeah I’d say that alone means this was a success. Even if a number of people on here want to tell you they don’t care for a free $3k or whatever, reality is that’s a huge W for a lot of the general CT population. I’ll write down some theories about what we might see coming down the pipe for this one and similar future distribution mechanisms. Probably also some data integrity analysis and opinion on what strengths and weaknesses in the current filtering this all exposes

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Social Capital Arbitrage Have been thinking about this concept a lot the last couple of days because of the loud presale... On one side of the aisle you have people moral grandstanding, effectively saying they're above picking up free money. On the other, people ravenously spamming like they're 2 weeks behind on rent. What doesn't make sense to me is why it was loud that caused so much of a fever pitch. The presale allocation was 0.2SOL...so like $30. Even at a 100x (implied 15m mcap) that's only $3k. Yet there are TONS of other mindshare boards offering incentives >= $3k *every single month* with very low levels of competition. Take Polkadot for example. Last month I got $10k in DOT. This month I'll get somewhere around $5k just for posting a few updates above governance and some gaming stuff about the Mythos chain. Those posts were objectively more useful for my audience than loudio stuff...and barely took more effort to produce...and had greater EV (if you really think the loudio presale is going to be a free $5-10k I would question your critical thinking ability)...yet barely anyone is willing to put in the (minimal) effort to farm those incentives. Why is that? Is it because this was a shorter term game with fast resolution? Was it because people really didn't even know what they were signing up for and the elusive/speculative nature of it was more intersting than a known, but still lucrative, incentive? Is it because people really think this is going to 1000x out of the gate? I feel like there must be some way to play this perceived social capital market inefficiency...aka the Social Capital Arbitrage, but I still haven't figured out exactly to take a position. Anyway, thanks for listening to my late evening rambling. Looking forward to the loud launch in a few hours. Should be fun

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There’s a few really interesting data points to watch from the Ultra Loudio experiment… Two biggest for me (and game theory analysis to come probably this evening): - IAO appetite. Pretty sure this is extremely desired by the cultural audience on CT as demonstrated by the fever pitch of posting last 96 hours - Data integrity of Kaito. There’s a number of classic 2021-2023 era engagement farmers effectively trying to buy mindshare/bribe mindshare with very outdated low effort/low quality methods. Think if they are able to maintain high placement that’s probably not a good signal for mindshare board value. You want the boards optimizing for high signal mindshare rather than a pit of slop. Basically “real” content vs NFT whitelist engagebot grind content. Should be lots of great analysis to emerge over the next week or so

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Big afternoon for ico

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Some closing thoughts this evening on Loud: - taking part is amoral. It is neither right nor wrong. It simply is or isn't. - the same people who were crying about various chains not being decentralized/permissionless enough last week want to impose their own supposed moral authority on your decision making...curious - people keep asking me: "ico do you think loudio is going to succeed or fail?" to which I say there is no succeed or fail. It's an experiment. The outcome is the outcome. - Ultra is cool for developing and designing this experiment. It's something interesting to me. I think the IAO model has legs as a new distribution primitive. He will probably catch heat for the experiment at some point because most people here will never truly "own" their own trading behavior...don't be one of the people who goes after him. - I think i'm leaning towards the Easy camp that overall volume/fees might actually be higher if it was a 2/2 tax instead of a 4/4 tax, but who knows...and there's no way to A/B test it live. Overall it seems to me likely to be free money for anyone in the presale and I don't fault anyone for picking up free money.

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