According to Jinshi data reports, JPMorgan analysts stated in their mid-year outlook report that U.S. tariff policies may drag down global economic growth and reignite inflation in the U.S. The U.S. economic growth rate is expected to be 1.3% in 2025, down from the 2% predicted at the beginning of the year.
JPMorgan believes that the stagflation effect brought about by the tariff hike is the reason for lowering this year's GDP growth expectations, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points between December and spring 2026. If an economic recession occurs or the slowdown exceeds expectations, it will trigger a more aggressive interest rate cut cycle.
Despite the uncertainty in policies, JPMorgan remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, citing the resilience of consumers and the economy. The bank is bearish on the dollar due to the slowdown in U.S. economic growth, while policies supporting growth outside the U.S. will boost other currencies, including emerging market currencies.