According to data from Jinshi, the UBS Wealth Management Investment Director's Office indicates that the U.S. may avoid a full-blown recession this year, but slowing growth and a weak labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in the coming months. The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in September, with a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year.
Although the peak of pessimism triggered by Trump’s trade policies may have passed, ongoing uncertainty could still exacerbate market volatility. Current high bond yields are conducive to seeking durable income. Historical data shows that as the holding period extends, the probability of bonds outperforming cash increases. UBS maintains a favorable view on high-rated and investment-grade bonds, expecting such bonds to achieve mid-single-digit returns over the next 12 months.