Bitcoin has just flashed a major structural warning on the weekly chart. The 20-week MA has officially crossed below the 50-week MA—a bearish signal that historically marks a significant shift in macro momentum. We haven't seen this specific "Death Cross" since the 2022 correction, which eventually led to a brutal drawdown.
The Technical Breakdown
While this cycle has been resilient, this crossover is a wake-up call. In previous cycles, this signal was followed by 9 consecutive red weekly candles. Currently, Bitcoin is testing its limits, and the loss of the $75K weekly support has fundamentally shifted the short-term outlook.
With momentum weakening and price action sitting below key moving averages, the "path of least resistance" currently points toward the $60K structural support zone.
The 2026 Roadmap
Reclaim $75K: This is the first hurdle. Reclaiming this level on a weekly close would signal that early strength is returning and the cross might be a "bear trap."
Break $80K: This is the true confirmation of a bull trend continuation, potentially opening the door for the psychological $100K milestone.Stay Below Weekly MAs: As long as price remains capped by these moving averages, the bears remain in control and further downside toward $58K–$60K remains highly probable.
The Big Question: Is this a necessary mid-cycle reset to wash out leverage, or the beginning of a deeper bearish phase? Until the trend flips, caution is the name of the game.
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