Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin faces strong resistance at $116,000, according to Bitfinex analysts.
Fed’s Sept. 17 interest rate decision could act as a major catalyst.
Q4 historically delivers Bitcoin’s strongest returns, averaging 85% since 2013.
$116K Emerges as a Key Barrier
Bitcoin has established a new resistance zone around $116,000, which will remain in place until bulls decisively reclaim the level, Bitfinex analysts said in a report Tuesday.
“BTC now trades at the upper edge of the range near $116,000, which remains resistance until decisively reclaimed,” the exchange noted, adding that Bitcoin’s momentum has faded since its Aug. 14 all-time high of $124,100.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading near $116,370, according to CoinMarketCap.
Fed Rate Cut Looms Large
The Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 interest rate decision is front and center for traders, with CME’s FedWatch Tool assigning a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argued that the first rate cut of 2025 could spark a “monster move” for Bitcoin and Ether over the next three months.
Not all analysts agree. Trader Ted warned that BTC could still dip to $104,000, or even as low as $92,000, before reversing toward new all-time highs.
While rate cuts are typically bullish for risk assets, many caution that the event may already be priced in, limiting upside in the short term.
Q4 Could Be the Bullish Catalyst
Beyond the Fed, traders are also watching the calendar. Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, delivering an average return of 85.42% since 2013, according to CoinGlass.
Bitfinex analysts noted that the recent dip to $107,400 on Sept. 1 was mainly driven by newer investors who bought in the February–May correction and used the bounce to exit profitably. Long-term holders, by contrast, continue to show strong conviction.
“This dynamic suggests meaningful headwinds for upside momentum in the short term,” Bitfinex concluded, according to Cointelegraph.
