Key Takeaways
Bitcoin halving occurred 504 days ago, signaling a mature bull phase, per CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
BTC price hit a $70,000 VDD peak in March, followed by smaller waves at $98,000 and $117,000.
Long-term holders are distributing in segments, showing sustainability driven by institutional demand.
Cycle’s final peak may appear when price reaches 11x realized value, projected in Oct–Nov 2025.
Bitcoin price analysis shows the market is in a mature bull phase, with segmented long-term holder selling and a possible peak by late 2025.
Bitcoin Market Update
According to PANews, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted 504 days have passed since the last Bitcoin halving. This indicates the crypto market has entered a mature bull phase.
Price and Distribution Context
During this cycle, Bitcoin’s price reached a Value Days Destroyed (VDD) peak of $70,000 in March. Later, moderate distribution waves occurred at $98,000 and $117,000, though they did not match March’s intensity. These patterns show long-term holders are selling in smaller, segmented waves.
Analyst Insights
Axel Adler Jr. explained that this selling behavior points to sustainable redistribution, fueled by institutional demand in the digital assets market. The final bull cycle peak is often identified by the “peak flag” indicator. This emerges when Bitcoin’s spot price is around 11 times the realized price of long-term holders.
Forward-Looking Outlook
The “peak flag” could appear between October and November 2025. Market watchers should also monitor large-scale spending by experienced holders and short-term volatility spikes, which may influence Bitcoin’s forecast and overall crypto market outlook.
