Two major U.S. events are unfolding almost back-to-back, and both have the potential to rapidly reshape how markets price growth, recession risk, and expectations around interest rate cuts.
First: U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs
At 10:00 AM ET, the Supreme Court will decide whether former President Trump’s tariffs are legally valid. Markets are currently pricing a ~77% probability that the tariffs will be ruled illegal.
If that happens, the U.S. government could be forced to return a significant portion of the $600+ billion already collected. While the president may still have alternative legal paths to reimpose tariffs, those mechanisms are slower, weaker, and far less predictable.
The key risk here is market psychology. Tariffs are currently perceived as supportive for certain sectors. A ruling against them could force markets to reprice expectations lower — a scenario that would also pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Second: U.S. unemployment data
At 8:30 AM ET, U.S. unemployment data will be released. Markets expect a reading of 4.5%, slightly lower than the previous 4.6%.
If unemployment comes in higher, recession fears will intensify.
If unemployment comes in lower, recession fears ease — but expectations for rate cuts fall even further.
At present, the probability of a January rate cut is already low at around 11%. Strong labor data could effectively eliminate any remaining hopes for near-term easing.
This creates a difficult setup for markets:
Weak data increases recession risk
Strong data reinforces tighter policy for longer
With both events compressed into a short time window, the next 24 hours represent a high-risk volatility zone for global markets.
Trade cautiously. Manage exposure carefully. This is not a period for emotional decisions.
Assets to watch: $ZEC $LIGHT $SUI
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