I scommettitori della Coppa del Mondo FIFA incassano milioni su Polymarket mentre un trader vince 9,24 milioni di dollari in un giorno

BeInCrypto Global · 2026-06-17T13:45:08.000Z

I trader dei mercati delle previsioni stanno vincendo e perdendo milioni sulla Coppa del Mondo 2026, con un scommettitore di Polymarket che ha incassato 9,24 milioni di dollari in un solo giorno dopo aver indovinato correttamente quattro risultati di partite. Il torneo ha trasformato piattaforme come Polymarket e Kalshi in arene di scommesse ad alto rischio. I trader stanno puntando somme a sette cifre su singole partite, e i risultati stanno producendo sia pagamenti record che perdite elevate. I mercati delle previsioni esplodono durante la Coppa del Mondo Polymarket è un mercato di previsione basato su crypto dove gli utenti comprano quote sì/no su eventi del mondo reale. Kalshi gestisce un modello simile.

Prediction market traders are winning and losing millions on the 2026 World Cup, with one Polymarket bettor banking $9.24 million in a single day after correctly calling four match outcomes.
The tournament has turned platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi into high-stakes betting arenas. Traders are wagering seven-figure sums on single matches, and the results are producing both record payouts and steep losses.
Prediction Markets Surge During the World Cup
Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where users buy yes-or-no shares on real-world outcomes. Kalshi runs a similar model.
Both platforms have seen heavy activity since the tournament began. The outright winner market on Polymarket alone has drawn more than $2.5 billion in volume.
That scale has made individual trades a spectacle. On-chain trackers now follow the biggest wallets in near real time.
Big Wins and Costly Bets
A standout winner went 4-for-4. According to Lookonchain, the trader staked $7.03 million on Iran not beating New Zealand. Iran drew 2-2, and that single bet returned $7.34 million. 
“He made $9.24M in a single day, winning all 4 of his bets for a 100% win rate,” the post read.
Another trader, fishalive, turned roughly $427,000 into $4.7 million after Spain drew 0-0 with Cape Verde at 9% odds. A third account, gardenshed, booked $764,000 in four days. It won 7 of 8 bets for an 87.5% win rate.
Losses were just as visible. One trader put about $1.2 million on Argentina not to beat Algeria, hoping to secure a $3.43 million payout.
Argentina won 3-0 behind a Lionel Messi hat-trick, and the trader lost. On Kalshi, another user lost $391,536 on the same outcome.
A separate Kalshi bettor put $373,407 on Algeria not to win, and that wager paid out $416,184.
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🚨UPDATE: Argentina moved up to 11% chance to win the World Cup after their first game.His position is now worth $1,208,377.45 on Polymarket… should he cash out or hold? https://t.co/OcbkMULbXa
 — Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 17, 2026
France Overtakes Spain as Title Favorite
Meanwhile, the odds have shifted sharply since the World Cup started. France now leads the Polymarket winner market at 18%. Spain trails at 13%, while Argentina holds 11%.
Kalshi shows a similar picture, with France at 18.7%, Spain at 13.3%, and Portugal at 10.9%. France has overtaken Spain as the favorite.
The coming group-stage matches will test whether trader bets keep paying or losses mount.
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