As the dust settles from the historic Jan/Feb "speculative washout," silver (XAG/USD) has found its footing near $77.40. For traders eyeing the recovery, the Fibonacci grid is the definitive roadmap for Q1 2026.
The Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Based on the swing from the late January peak of $121.30 to the recent flash-crash floor near $64.00, here are the critical levels to watch:
23.6% Level ($77.50): The "Survival" Line. We are currently hugging this level. A daily close above it confirms the panic selling is over and sets a baseline for the bulls.
38.2% Level ($86.30 - $86.80): The "Confluence" Barrier. This is the heavy-lift zone. It aligns with the 200-period SMA on the 4H chart. Expect significant selling pressure here.
50.0% Level ($92.30 - $93.00): The "Bullish Pivot". Crossing $93 transforms this move from a "dead cat bounce" into a legitimate trend resumption.
61.8% Level ($99.40): The "Golden Pocket". This is the gateway to triple digits. Break this, and $100 becomes a floor, not a ceiling.
Strategic Trade Setups
ScenarioTriggerTargetStop-LossConservative LongBreakout & retest of $86.80$93.00Below $81.50Aggressive Dip-BuyCurrent entry near $77.00$86.00Below $72.00Institutional PlayConsolidation above $93.00$117.00Below $85.00
Analyst Note: Silver’s structural deficit is projected at 67–95 million ounces for 2026. While the technicals look like a "reset," the fundamentals (AI data centers & solar) are screaming "undervalued."
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