Hello everyone. We left the first week of September behind with a picture where BTC challenged a critical resistance but couldn't break through, while ETH remained relatively weaker. In this environment where the market's search for direction continues, as we start the second week, both technical levels and short-term option data provide us with important clues. Let's examine in detail what awaits the markets this week and what the data tells us.
This week's macroeconomic agenda is also quite important. Tomorrow, Thursday, September 11th, the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and US Monthly Inflation announcements could be sources of volatility for the week. However, the markets' main focus continues to be the FED Interest Rate Decision to be announced next week on September 17th. This expectation may cause a cautious trend to dominate the market throughout this week.
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC closed last week with a +2.66% rise. Despite several attempts throughout the week, it couldn't manage to break the $113,000 level that stood like a fortress against it. Starting the week by testing this critical zone again shows that buyers haven't given up, but also demonstrates how strong the sellers are. The Fear and Greed Index in the market is at 53, indicating neutral indecision.
This week's implied volatility range is between 99.5k and 123k. I expect the price to first break the 113k zone and then test the 118-119k area. I think this zone is emerging as a key level for the near term. The probability of a correction from this zone seems quite high. Therefore, I think it's necessary to be careful with trades in these zones and bearish trades could be structured.
The most striking data of this week comes from the short-term (September 12 expiry) options market:
Max Pain: The Max Pain price for weekly expiry is exactly at the $113,000 level where the struggle is taking place.
Put/Call Ratio: The Put/Call Ratio for weekly options is at an extremely high level of 1.53. This ratio shows that demand for put options in the market is much higher than call options for the short term. This situation indicates that investors either expect a sharp decline or are heavily hedging their positions against a pullback from the $113k resistance. This data is one of the biggest obstacles to breaking $113k. We also see some increase in the P/C ratio in end contracts.
DVOL: With volatility still continuing to decline, uncertainty is also increasing. We can view the coming days as time-passing movements and correction completion movements. It can be said that as volatility decreases during periods when price can break in both directions, the severity of the next move also increases. Taking trades according to the breakout direction and taking volatility trades can give quite good results. The only disadvantage could be causing losses during this time-playing period.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH showed a weaker performance compared to BTC last week, closing the week with approximately -2% decline. Most importantly, it made a close below the monthly opening price, turning this level into resistance. The most critical resistance zone to follow for ETH is $4,500. Without permanent and high-volume closes above this level, it seems difficult for ETH to positively diverge from BTC.
This week's implied volatility range is between 3600 and 5000. We need to see daily closes above the 4500 area first. Until this condition is met, it can be said that heavy long positions are more likely to cause losses. After testing this zone again, I think a pullback to the 3500-3700 area would be a good move.
ETH's option data tells a different story compared to BTC:
Weekly Option Data (September 12 Expiry):
Max Pain: Weekly Max Pain is at $4,400 level. This shows that price may consolidate in this zone in the short term.
Put/Call Ratio: Weekly P/C Ratio is at a neutral level of 1.01. Unlike the extreme pessimism in BTC, the market appears balanced for ETH in the short term.
Monthly Option Data (September 26 Expiry):
Max Pain: Monthly Max Pain price has been slightly revised upward from last week's $3,200 level to $3,300.
Put/Call Ratio: Monthly P/C Ratio at 0.55 shows that the market maintains its optimistic outlook on ETH in the medium-long term, but there's also some increase here.
DVOL (Derivative Volatility): DVOL, which was 70% last week, has declined to 65% this week. This shows that the market's excessive volatility expectation for the short term has decreased somewhat, but is still at high levels. It's likely to decrease further with recent inactivity.
ETH/BTC Pair
Last week, with ETH losing momentum against BTC, there was some pullback in the pair. For ETH to regain strength, it first needs to decisively break the $4,500 resistance in its own Dollar pair. Until this happens, the pair can be expected to remain under pressure for a while. Especially after experiencing a sharp rise, losing the important purple box support here makes a pullback to the 0.033-0.034 area seem possible. Taking short positions on ETH and longs on BTC might be more logical.
Conclusion and Weekly Strategy
The second week of September is a candidate to be a direction-setting week. BTC is challenging the fortress at $113,000, but the extremely high weekly Put/Call ratio shows how strongly this fortress is being defended. ETH is struggling to accompany BTC without breaking its own critical resistances.
Points to consider when determining strategy for this week:
BTC's $113k Response: A decisive rejection from this level could trigger a short-term pullback. A breakout could attract new buyers to the market.
Option Data: Especially the 1.53 P/C ratio in BTC whispers that caution should be exercised against upward movements.
Macro Agenda: ECB decision may create short-term volatility, but the real storm could break next week with the FED. Therefore, a waiting atmosphere may also be seen in the market this week.
Being patient until a clear breakout comes in the market and focusing on key levels will be the right strategy in this critical week. We will closely follow the developments.
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