Trisha_Saha

AVAX: Poised for a Major Bullish Surge

AVAX is currently retesting a long-standing support area that was previously respected in both June and January of 2021. The zone between $9–$12 has acted as a strong floor for several years and has not been decisively broken. This suggests that downside risk may be limited in this region.

On the daily chart, AVAX has already completed a bullish structure, increasing the probability of a future upward move.

⚠️To be clear, I am not expecting an immediate rally, but this is the area I’m monitoring closely for a potential long-term accumulation or trading opportunity.

I’m focusing on realistic targets that the price has successfully reached in the past:
Key Targets:
$32.5
$44
$53

You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!

❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️

$AVAX

Zec was not able to pass its yearly ATH level (750), with the market worries and privacy hype losing power dropped down below upper trendline and came to the downward trendline support, below the support price can retrace till to 220-230 usdt level. On the upside resistance zone will be around 400-410 level

$ZEC

Momentum: Bearish

Price is rising towards the sell entry, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and remains below the Ichimoku cloud.

Sell Entry: 2,867.98
Overlap resistance
38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 2,972.02
Pullback resistance
Slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 2,695.74
Pullback support

$ETH

I updated the support box and the range 🕯
Solana is currently between a support box and a range, with prices between $123 and $128, which is an extremely important support, and the RSI is also in oversold territory 💰💲

If this support holds and the top of the box, meaning $128, is broken 📣

The first rise would be towards $135 🔼🚨

$SOL

Investment Memo: Anticipating a 2026 Bitcoin Crypto Winter
By ProjectSyndicate
________________________________________
1. Executive Summary
❄️ Summary view: This memo treats 2026 as the high-probability crypto winter year for Bitcoin following the 2024 halving, with a working top around 123,000 USD and an expected cycle low near 30,000 USD, implying roughly a 75–76% drawdown from the peak. This is fully consistent with historical Bitcoin bear markets, which have typically seen 75–85% corrections from all-time highs.

❄️ Contrarian hook: While mainstream narratives still focus on ETFs, institutional adoption, and “crypto as macro asset,” the explosion of leverage (Aster DEX up to 1001x), CZ-backed perps, and BNB-chain meme-coin mania are treated here as late-cycle excess—classic topping signals rather than sustainable foundations.
________________________________________
2. Thesis & Target Range

📊 Cycle top assumption: cycle high of ~123,000 USD per BTC. That is well within the band implied by recent ATH prints ~125–126k in mid-2025 and aligns with a typical “blow-off” overshoot above the prior psychological milestone at 100k.
📊 Cycle low assumption: 30,000 USD downside target represents a drawdown of ~75.6% from 123,000 USD—slightly shallower than the 2018 crash (~84%) and broadly in line with the 2021–22 bear (~77% from 69k to ~15–16k). That keeps this winter brutal but not apocalyptic, consistent with a maturing asset still capable of deep mean reversion.

🧮 Math check on prior winters
• 2017–18: 19k → 3k ≈ 84% drawdown
• 2021–22: 69k → 16k ≈ 77% drawdown
• 2025–26 (your base case): 123k → 30k ≈ 76% drawdown
This places scenario squarely inside the historical corridor of 75–85% post-peak corrections.
________________________________________
3. Historical Pattern: Why Large Drawdowns Are the Base Case

📉 Structural volatility: Bitcoin’s entire price history is punctuated by massive post-parabolic drawdowns—early cycles saw 86–93% collapses, later ones 75–80%. Each halving-to-peak run has ended in a violent crash once marginal buyers are exhausted and leverage saturates.

📉 Time dimension: Historically, the “winter” phase has lasted 9–18 months from peak to capitulation and then a long grinding accumulation. The 2017 peak to 2018–19 bottom spanned roughly a year; the 2021 peak to 2022–23 nadir similarly took about a year, with a further period of sideways chop.

📉 Drawdown normalization: Traditional asset allocators increasingly frame Bitcoin as an alternative macro asset, but the statistical reality is unchanged: drawdowns of 70%+ are not outliers—they are typical. An assumption of only shallow corrections is the non-consensus view; a 75% winter is actually the boringly normal scenario from a historical distribution standpoint.
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4. Where We Are in the Current Cycle

⏳ Post-halving positioning: The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024, cutting block rewards to 3.125 BTC and effectively tightening supply. Historically, the major blow-off tops occur 12–18 months after halving, as reduced supply + narrative momentum pulls in late-stage retail and leverage.

⏳ Evidence of late-cycle behavior: By mid-2025, Bitcoin had already pushed to new ATHs above 100k and then into the ~120–126k region, with growing signs of ETF saturation, institutional FOMO, and leverage-driven upside. From a purely cyclical lens, we are more likely in the “euphoria / distribution” band than in early bull territory.
________________________________________
5. Aster DEX & Meme-Coin Mania as Contrarian Top Signals

🚨 Aster DEX as the “Hyperliquid of BNB Chain”: Aster DEX, emerging from APX Finance and Astherus and explicitly leveraging Binance’s network, is marketed as a high-performance perp DEX with MEV-resistant trading and leverage up to 1001x, backed by CZ/affiliate ventures. From a contrarian perspective, this is textbook late-cycle: maximum leverage offered to the broadest possible audience at or near cycle highs.

🚨 BNB meme-coin carnival: Simultaneously, BNB-chain meme coins and speculative listings (Maxi Doge, PEPENODE, various new BNB meme projects) are being pushed as high-beta “next 100x” plays. Historically, similar episodes—2017 ICOs, 2021 dog-coin and NFT mania—have coincided with or slightly lagged Bitcoin’s macro top rather than signal early-cycle value.

🎭 Narrative pattern recognition: In prior cycles, the market’s center of gravity shifted from Bitcoin to highly speculative edges (ICOs, NFTs, obscure DeFi, meme coins) at the very end of the bull. Late-cycle liquidity rotates into lottery tickets while BTC quietly transitions from “must own” to “source of funds.” The current Aster + BNB meme complex rhymes strongly with that historical script.
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6. Why a 75% Drawdown to 30,000 USD is Plausible

🧊 From 123k to 30k mechanically: A move from 123k to 30k doesn’t require structural failure; it merely requires a reversion to historical drawdown. That kind of move can be achieved by:
• ETF inflows slowing or turning to mild outflows
• Derivatives funding turning negative as carry trades unwind
• A moderate macro risk-off (equities correction, higher real yields)

🧊 Maturing, not invincible: As adoption broadens—spot ETFs, institutional mandates, integration into macro portfolios—Bitcoin’s upside may gradually compress, but liquidity cycles and leverage cycles haven’t vanished. Even if each cycle’s drawdown edges slightly lower from ~85% to ~77%, there’s no reason to assume sub-50% drawdowns are the new regime. A respectable winter at 30k is almost conservative relative to earlier -80%+ events.
________________________________________
7. Why the Floor Might Hold Above Prior Lows

🛡️ On-chain + macro floor logic: Without pinning to proprietary on-chain models, two simple supports for a 30k floor are:
• Institutional cost basis: A growing chunk of supply is held via ETFs and treasuries accumulated in the 40–70k band. Many of these players may defend positions with hedging or incremental buying in the high-20k / low-30k region rather than panic-sell at -70–80%.
• Realized price ratcheting higher: Across cycles, Bitcoin’s long-term realized price average on-chain cost basis tends to step up structurally. Past winters have bottomed not far below that long-term average; as the realized base rises, so does the likely bear-market floor.

🛡️ Regime shift vs. previous cycles: In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin was still climbing the wall of institutional skepticism. By the mid-2020s, you have:
• Spot ETFs
• Corporate treasuries
• Sovereign/FI experimentation
These players typically do not capitulate to zero; they reduce risk, but they also accumulate in stress. That supports the idea of a shallower floor (30k) instead of a full 85–90% purge.
________________________________________
8. Timing the 2026 Winter
🧭 Halving + 18-month lag template: Using the standard halving cycle template, major tops often occur 12–18 months post-halving, and winters then dominate the following year. With the fourth halving in April 2024, a 2025 ATH and a 2026 winter are exactly what the simple cycle model would project.

🧭 Scenario sketch
• 2025: Distribution at elevated levels (80–120k+), persistent Bitcoin as digital gold narrative, alt & meme blow-off, over-issuance of high-leverage products (Aster, other perps).
• 2026: Liquidity withdrawal + ETF fatigue + regulatory flare-ups → a stair-step decline through 80k, 60k, 45k, culminating in capitulation wicks into the 30–35k zone before a multi-month bottoming process.
________________________________________
9. Market Structure Stress Points in a Winter Scenario

🧱 Leverage cascade risk: Perp DEXs offering hundreds to 1000x leverage attract the most price-insensitive flow at the worst time. When BTC breaks key levels (e.g., 80k → 60k → 50k), auto-deleveraging and forced liquidations can accelerate downside far beyond spot selling. Aster-style platforms, while innovative, mechanically create risk of cascading liquidations in a volatility spike.

🧱 Alt & meme vaporization: BNB meme coins and other speculative assets that rode the late-cycle pump will likely see 90–99% drawdowns, as in previous winters where smaller alts dramatically underperformed BTC. In your framework, BTC at 30k is actually the “high-quality survivor” outcome; the majority of late-cycle tokens may never reclaim their peaks.

🧱 Mining and infrastructure: With halved rewards and a much lower BTC price, marginal miners will be forced offline, just as in prior winters. That tends to deepen the short-term pain but ultimately improves the cost curve (strong miners consolidate, inefficient ones exit), laying groundwork for the next cycle.
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🚨🚨🚨 2026 CRYPTO WINTER PLAYBOOK – CONTRARIAN BTC OUTLOOK

🥶 Bitcoin cycle top penciled in around $123K, with a projected winter low near $30K (≈-75%).
❄️ Previous winters: 2018 -84%, 2022 -77% – a -75% drawdown is actually “normal” for BTC.
🌨️ 2024 halving → 2025 blow-off → 2026 winter fits the classic 12–18 month post-halving boom-and-bust pattern.
🧊 Aster DEX 1000x leverage + BNB meme coin mania = classic late-cycle euphoria, not the start of a new bull.
🌬️ Spot ETF + institutional FOMO can’t delete BTC’s historical 70–80% crash DNA – they just shift where the floor is.
🌨️ $30K acts as a plausible new floor, supported by higher institutional cost basis and long-term realized price.
🧊 Expect alt & meme coins to nuke 90–99%, while BTC “only” does -75% and survives to lead the next cycle.
❄️ Smart money sells euphoria near 6-figure BTC, builds dry powder, and targets gradual entries 40–35–30K.
🥶 Leverage is the enemy: perps and 1000x casinos likely accelerate the crash via liquidation cascades.
🌨️ Not financial advice – it’s a cycle-based contrarian framework for a statistically “normal” 2026 Bitcoin winter.

$BTC

Looking at Bitcoin’s recent price action, you can probably feel that the latest drop wasn’t a random fall. The market completely broke through a multi-day equilibrium zone, and the moment BTC was repeatedly rejected at the EMA 89 and then lost the EMA 34, the balance of power shifted clearly toward the sellers.

Interestingly, right after that sharp breakdown, BTC bounced into a short-term pullback. This doesn’t signal a trend reversal; it’s simply the market’s natural reaction after falling too quickly: profit-taking from sellers, short-covering, and weak dip-buying flows creating a technical rebound — enough to rebalance the market, but not enough to change direction.

From a macro perspective, the signals are fairly aligned: US bond yields have risen again, the DXY has bounced from the 99 area, ETF inflows have weakened, and defensive sentiment ahead of upcoming US labour data has caused demand to dry up almost entirely. Crypto is simply being dragged along with the broader risk-off environment.

From a technical angle, BTC is trading below both the EMA 34 and EMA 89 — two downward-sloping moving averages indicating the trend remains bearish. The 4H breakdown accompanied by strong volume shows this is a real sell-off. BTC is currently pulling back to retest the resistance levels: 88,700–89,000 at the EMA 34 and 90,400–90,600 at the EMA 89. These zones will reveal whether selling pressure still dominates.

If sellers return aggressively, BTC may continue heading toward lower support regions: 85,500–86,000 is the first key area, followed by 83,000–84,000 — a demand zone that previously generated a strong bullish reaction. With the current momentum, the scenario where BTC at least touches the 85,500–86,000 support is becoming increasingly likely.

Which direction do you think the market is leaning toward? Feel free to share your perspective — and wishing everyone successful trading!

$BTC

The downtrend continues. The technical and fundamental situation for the crypto market is neutral to weak.
Bearish pressure held back the attempt to rise relative to 91K. The market is weak and not ready for growth. The subsequent decline broke the local structure, which generally indicates a bear market, but after updating the local minimum to 83700, a countertrend correction is forming. Zone of interest/break-even zone - 89K - 90K. A quick retest of these levels could trigger a downward pullback.

Resistance levels: 89K, 90K
Support levels: 85,400, 83,400

A retest of the range boundary and zone of interest could trigger a liquidity squeeze and a further decline if the bears keep the price below these boundaries.

$BTC

Chart Analysis

An inverse head and shoulders has formed in this zone, signaling a possible shift from bearish pressure to bullish momentum. Left shoulder, head, and right shoulder all developed near the same demand region, showing consistent buying interest.

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Key Levels

🔹 Resistance Zone: 89200

Price has rejected this level multiple times. A sustained break above it would open the door for further upside.

🔹 Supply Zone: 91400

A major supply area where selling pressure has appeared before. If price reaches this zone, a reaction can be expected.

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🔶 Structure Confirmation

A clean neckline breakout would confirm strength in the pattern. If price pulls back for a retest, that level can act as fresh support and trigger continuation to the upside. Overall structure still favors upward movement.

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📈 Expected Move

Right shoulder formation supports a potential bullish push.

A retest of the neckline can serve as support.

First target sits around 89200, and if that breaks, the next objective is the 91400 zone.

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Market Bias

As long as the structure holds and support levels remain intact, the overall bias stays bullish

$$BTC

📈 BTC/USD BUY @ 87000

🔷 TP1: 87300
🔷 TP2: 87650
🔷 TP3: 88100
🔷 TP4: 89116

🔻 SL: 86000

Trade Scenario:
Price is bouncing from local support near 87000, with bullish momentum expected to continue toward the resistance zone at 89116. This setup targets short-term breakout zones and intraday liquidity levels.

Risk Management Tip:
Risk only 1–2% of account equity; secure partial profits at TP1 and TP2, then trail SL to breakeven while targeting TP3 and TP4.

Alternate Scenario:
If price breaks and sustains below 86000, bearish momentum may resume toward 85000.

$BTC

HERE IS DOGE GOING?! THIS IS MAKING YOU EMOTIONAL!

DOGE price on MEXC is volatile, folks! Crypto Drama: Since late November, DOGE has been falling like a roller coaster with broken brakes. This is really bad! DOGE is currently hovering around $0.135, seemingly in a precarious position. This is a very fragile support level. There's a "falling wedge" pattern indicating the price could "PUMP" to $0.16. However, the price could also "FALL" even lower if it breaks through the lower boundary. Oops! Essentially, DOGE is playing a guessing game. Prepare to be mentally battered! #ToTheMoonOrToTheGround
Warning: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and practice strict risk management. The crypto market is highly volatile.

$DOGE

XMR rejected the $424 high-time-frame resistance and has now slipped back below the $408 level, showing early signs of a deeper corrective move.

As long as price holds beneath $408, downside continuation remains the higher-probability path toward the broader $290 support zone.

Key Points:
- Rejection at $424 resistance
- Price back under $408, confirming weakness
- Support target sits near $290

What to Expect:
If sellers maintain control below $408, XMR likely trends lower. A reclaim of $408 would be needed to shift bias back toward short-term bullishness.

$XMR

XMR rejected the $424 high-time-frame resistance and has now slipped back below the $408 level, showing early signs of a deeper corrective move.

As long as price holds beneath $408, downside continuation remains the higher-probability path toward the broader $290 support zone.

Key Points:
- Rejection at $424 resistance
- Price back under $408, confirming weakness
- Support target sits near $290

What to Expect:
If sellers maintain control below $408, XMR likely trends lower. A reclaim of $408 would be needed to shift bias back toward short-term bullishness.

$XMR

After a good week of heavy selling pressure, I think mostly due to the fact there is a lot of airdrops being released (I received a good portion of USDF rewards too on asterdex), as well that Bitcoin is doing a healthy correction, I expect the price to stabilize again.

I have spot holdings for the long-term but this is my idea for a leveraged short-term trade over the next weeks / months at most.

$ASTER

BTC — Technical Update
4H Zoom-In | Potential Reversal
As outlined in the previous BTC update, the Leading Diagonal in Minute Wave ⓘ has retraced near the 0.786 Fib-level — setting the stage for an impulse of Minute degree 3rd wave within Minor Wave 1 (as initiating sequence upward), which will highly confirm resumption of the BTC uptrend through Primary Wave ⓹.
If the current reversal structures hold — namely, the Ending Diagonal completing Intermediate Wave (C) followed by a Leading Diagonal in Minute Wave ⓘ, with a deep retracement — BTC could surge toward the origin of the Ending Diagonal Int. Wave (C) ➤ $116,400 🎯, likely into mid-December.
This potential impulsive advance would mark the completion of Minor Wave 1, setting the stage for the continuation of the broader uptrend.

$BTC

HUMA has been moving inside a large Descending Channel for months, forming a repeated yet controlled pattern of selling pressure. Every rally has consistently failed to break the upper trendline, maintaining a strong lower-high structure. But now, something important is happening:

👉 Price is sitting directly above the Key Support at 0.025–0.0225, a long-standing “life-or-death” zone for buyers.
This is not just another support — this is the final defense before a major structural breakdown or a powerful market reversal.

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🔶 Clear Technical Structure

1. Descending Channel (Major Trend)
The trend remains bearish, but the channel is tightening — an early sign of momentum shift.

2. Key Support Box (0.025–0.0225)
This zone has acted as a strong demand area multiple times.
The more it gets tested, the bigger the potential move — either a breakout upward or a sharp breakdown.

3. Midline Reaction
Price frequently reacts around the midline, showing that market participants are respecting this dynamic level.

4. Key Horizontal Targets
0.031 → 0.037 → 0.0445 → 0.055 → 0.067
These levels are not only resistance but also potential rally checkpoints if structure shifts bullish.

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🟢 Bullish Scenario (Major Reversal Potential)

Bullish bias becomes valid only if:

1. Price breaks the upper trendline with clean momentum.

A breakout without volume is not valid.

2. Daily close above 0.031.

This confirms the long-term downtrend is weakening.

If confirmed, bullish targets:

TP1: 0.037 (nearest resistance, minor rejection zone)

TP2: 0.0445 (major structural resistance)

TP3: 0.055 (bullish structure activation)

TP4: 0.067 (high-value upside target)

Bullish Intent

The channel has extended for a long period — sellers may be exhausted.

Price is stabilizing near strong support.

Large reversals often begin from areas like this.

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🔴 Bearish Scenario (Trend Continuation)

Bearish momentum continues if:

Daily close falls below 0.0225.

This would indicate the final support has failed.

Bearish downside targets:

T1: 0.018 (mid-to-lower channel zone)

T2: 0.015–0.0135 (lower boundary, potential capitulation sweep)

Bearish Intent

The Descending Channel remains dominant.

Selling pressure is still strong near the upper trendline.

Losing the key support can trigger panic-driven moves.

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🎯 Market Psychology

The 0.025–0.0225 level currently represents:

A slow accumulation zone for smart money, or

A distribution zone before continuation downward

At this stage, the market is choosing its next direction — and the move that follows this zone is usually significant.

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$HUMA

BTCUSD BTC/USD – Liquidity Sweep Reversal Play [BTCUSD]

Signal: SELL

Entry: 86,795

TP1: 85,342

TP2: 84,000

TP3: 82,500

SL: 88,300

Insights:

Price rejected from 0.5 Fibonacci (86,820) and sits below key MA resistance, signaling bearish momentum.

RSI divergence (43.58 vs 39.51) and MACD histogram deepening below zero confirm weakening bullish pressure.

VRVP shows low-volume node near entry, suggesting price may seek lower liquidity zones.

#FVGReversal #SmartMoneySell #BTCScalpSetup#MACDConfluence #RSIDivergence #VolumeGapPlay

🌟 Trade Like Hunter (for professional edge)

✅ High-Probability Setup: Confluence across MA rejection, RSI divergence, MACD bearish crossover, and VRVP void.

📊 Risk-Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5 (TP2), 1:3.5 (TP3) – strong reward profile.

🔑 Liquidity Zone Confirmation: Entry aligns with imbalance zone and sits above unfilled FVG.

🧠 Market Psychology: Distribution phase post liquidity sweep above 0.5 Fib – bears gaining control.

⚡ Probability Score: 80% High Probability

📈 Scalability: Setup aligns with H1 and H4 structure – ideal for intraday and swing scalpers.

🔒 Risk Disclaimer: Always use proper risk management. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

$BTC

eth has been going sideways since 2021. we clearly have a bearish double top (inside) an ascending triangle and have rejected off support. now we will likely see a pull back to support which would be another 30% drop before we see a bull market. this looks like a bearish break and simple retest of the old high from 2018 price to watch 1500.00

$ETH

Here is a brief visual roadmap showing how a beginner to the wave theory can still access the main benefit of EW Theory... Directional Bias! That thing that keeps you in profit and with the trend, even if you misdiagnose a pattern or have an errant wave count.

I've highlighted some of the key benefits to having the correct directional bias and some of the most important properties of using The Elliott Wave Theory as a beginner! I hope this is helpful to someone, if you are struggling with your current trading system or methodology or just someone who needs a different approach, dig into the Elliott Wave Principal as this "Theory" has no doubt changed my life for the better! For Educational Purposes Only.

$QNT

Let's dive into Cake analysis, the native token of PancakeSwap DEX.

👀 CAKE – Short-Term Market Breakdown
After breaking its newly formed support at $2.342, CAKE moved sharply lower and formed a temporary support around $2.233.
A breakdown below $2.233 could activate the next major downside trigger.

📊 Volume Analysis
Selling pressure on CAKE has intensified aggressively.
In a single 4H candle, sellers dominated the market with heavy force.
If sell volume expands again, the current downtrend is likely to continue with momentum.

🔁 CAKE/BTC Perspective
The CAKE/BTC pair is still holding a bullish structure, but a loss of its current support could trigger a corrective phase in the BTC pair as well.

📌 Trading Scenario
This scenario can be used alongside your own trading strategy and risk management.

🔴 Short Scenario
Breakdown below the newly formed support at $2.233
Must be accompanied by a strong increase in sell volume

This could push CAKE lower and may also trigger a support breakdown on CAKE/BTC, adding further downside pressure.

❤️ Risk Management & Emotional Discipline
Crypto trading is highly risky. Without proper risk management and emotional control, trading is no different from gambling.
Logic must always come before emotions. Learn to manage your trades—and enjoy the process of trading with control and discipline.