Told my friend he’d probably make more this summer by ignoring crypto and just playing his PS5. Bro has a bad habit of trading out of boredom. Will probably get chopped up before the markets move.
Connected with some friends recently who used to be in Crypto but left the scene.
Most got cooked from Luna / FTX crashing. No disposable income to invest due to increased cost of living. Finally, they rather invest in BTC than altcoins because it’s safer.
A great protocol doesn't always equal a great investment. Why? Terrible tokenomics, no utility for the token, or they don't know how to market themselves.
Cycles feel shorter because it’s still the same people shuffling money around. We get excited over any new narratives but everyone’s racing to dump first.
There’s a common piece of advice every time we enter a new cycle.
“Avoid the older protocols. Buy the new ones.”
There’s some truth to this.
When you’re buying the brand new protocols:
• You’re avoiding the breakeven bagholders. People who are already down and eager to dump as soon as they break even again • The tokenomics are fresher and more modern • Most of the tokens for insiders are locked • The protocols tend to be aligned to the latest narratives • People want to feel “early” to something
In Q4 2024, A.I. agents were the hot new thing. Betting on AI agents would’ve crushed most boomer bags from the previous cycle.
But here’s the catch:
It’s only been 4 months since the Jan 2025 top.
This isn’t a new cycle…it’s the same one continuing. There hasn’t been enough time for that many new primitives or narratives to form.
The real alpha now? Look for protocols that were hot in January, got nuked in price, but they kept building.
Prices are down, but the products are much more developed. And the developments haven’t been priced in yet since so many people are still sidelined.
That’s a better risk-adjusted bet.
We’re already seeing quite a few protocols bounce back the past few weeks.