mikey-1

crypto incentives in one sentence:

points and tokens have unlimited upside, vouchers and dollars don't

one reason to be bearish CEXs is that the avg project quality will go up in the future

less teams will look for quick exit liq, and more teams will use efficient methods (HIP-1/3) to list tokens

retail chases hype on CEXs, pros will find the good tokens wherever they are

prediction market idea:

decay curve for PnL % fee for takers

in block 0, PnL % fee is 50%, at end of decay (e.g. 3 hrs), fee is 0%

someone who made 10k in first minute pays 5k to makers

makers can quote tighter early on, liq high early on, mrkt more efficient from block 0

from a pure product/fundamentals perspective, i don't think anyone will get close to hyperliquid this cycle

but... funny things happen in speculation-based markets

i remember the Merit Circle / YGG flippening, SUSHI / UNI...

in a hot market, some beta chasers will do well

what's the biggest reason why there's no onchain poker at scale? web2 painpoints are obvious: all on centralized rails, friction around money flows, corruption etc

seems like either:

1) builders are too theoretical wrt onchain = slow
2) bigger games to play (BJ, roulette)

what's the biggest reason why there's no onchain poker at scale? web3 painpoints are obvious: all on centralized rails, friction around money flows, corruption etc

seems like either:

1) builders are too theoretical wrt onchain = slow
2) bigger games to play (BJ, roulette)

truth: there will be perp dexs in the future that are both
1) faster (latency wise)
2) more private (dark pools)

and this likely leads to meaningful market share being captured by protocols not named hyperliquid

truth: there will be perp dexs in the future that are both
1) faster (latency wise)
2) more private (dark pools)

and this likely leads to more market share being capture by protocols not named hyperliquid

the next big perp dex winner is one that allows for anonymous positions as a native feature

there are two ways to control toxic flow

1. ban their access (casinos, sportsbooks)
2. offload the flow to an outside party (exchanges)

memecoins are still largely an access-based game rather than a skill one

popularity of skill games r growing in web2, specifically poker

v excited about crypto-native skill-based games (prediction markets r a start)

would like to see fantasy, survivor, tournament-style models

airdrops, or the perception of future one, are the fastest way to get distribution

some stick around longer than others

deFi-to-tradFi gold volumes: ~$250M to ~$250B (0.1%)
onchain-to-offchain t-bills: ~$6B to ~$6T (0.1%)

think these numbers move up meaningfully over the next few years