lurkaroundfind

2013 blowoff top was in BTC

2017 blowoff top was in ETH

2021 blowoff top was in SOLUNAVAX

2025 blowoff top is in crypto equities

All the Bitcoin catalysts are behind us.

ETF, Trump, strategic reserve.

Only thing left is the BTC treasury company ponzis.

The cycle always begins with fundamentals and ends with ponzis.

BTC is still a speculative risk asset, not a safe haven. Because it has two major unsolved problems.

1) Security model
2) Quantum resistance

With so much uncertainty, BTC isn't yet ready to be a true safe haven. This is why I think another brutal bear market is inevitable.

Everywhere I look it’s top signals.

- Trump aggressively milking crypto
- Too many copycat treasury companies
- Circle IPO
- PumpFun token
- Saylor inventing new financial instruments to keep the ponzi going
- Chart looks just like end of last cycle

The hour is late.

Trump topped memecoins by launching his own.

Now he’s topped BTC by raising $2.5B to buy.

I guess I really don’t know much about trading or markets.

But I know we’re late in the cycle, there’s too much optimism around Bitcoin, and summer is right around the corner.

Cash is your friend.

A lot of optimism baked into crypto prices here.

Trump’s company about to spend $2.5B, that Ethereum company about to spend $450M, and FTX users receiving $5B.

All these hit in the next few days. But what then?