DaanCrypto

$BTC Consolidation beneath resistance. A breakout from this wedge should give it the push that it needs to break above that ~$108K resistance.

But even this small consolidation can still easily take days and it has been pretty choppy.

Overall I'd recommend to zoom out and really wait for that proper break above the $108K-$110K region which should also increase risk appetite towards alts.

Without that breakout, it's still a massive resistance in a larger range.

$BTC Has essentially traded around this same price region for the past 2 months.

We have swept some highs and lows during this time but there's still two major liquidity clusters above and below. These also correspond with the larger range.

Below ~$92K and Above ~$110K.

Both $BTC & $ETH have seen a good 2nd Quarter.

For BTC this was about average of its historical performance, which is really good considering its market capitalisation these days.

For $ETH this was good but not close to its historical average (which is heavily influenced by a +453% quarter in 2017 lol).

Q3 is coming and this has historically been the most boring quarter with the least returns. Both $BTC & $ETH tend to see a choppy environment with little upside. This is usually due to the summer period where there's less liquidity/volumes.

For crypto, this has been the time where we've seen some of its craziest narratives/sectors kick off. Like DeFi, NFTs, Metaverse etc.

$BTC Another day, another test of the range high.

This remains the big line in the sand for further high timeframe upside.

I've been recommending to wait until price actually breaks and holds above it before getting too excited.

Since then, we've seen several rejections and most alts trading down massively during that time so I think that was a good decision.

Once we see a breakout, we can start looking for higher.

$BTC Clean retest of the mid range.

Front ran the Daily 200MA/EMA which are coming in right below.

Price now trading close to the range high again which has been a strong resistance over the past 2 months.

Break and hold above and we can get a proper run going again. That should also help out alts.

$BTC Has been stalling out around the $100K+ area for some time.

It has been unable to trade and hold above the $108K-$110K region so far.

Below, the $90K-95K area has been acting as an important region for most of this year.

Be on the look out for high timeframe closes above or below these levels to gauge the overall high timeframe market trend.

Don't directly dismiss potential strength or weakness as it always starts small, and before you know it, a big move has occurred.

$BTC During the past month, we've seen the US & EU sessions perform worst while the Asia Session has been pretty much flat.

Momentum has just generally stalled on the higher timeframe and there has been no clear direction the past month.

We've seen large ETF inflows during this time, so the fact that the US sessions still saw an overall sell off, just shows how much supply there is at this price region.

Eventually price will chew through that but it takes time as we can see.

$BTC Strong rally from the range lows after a big liquidity grab and deviation.

Now back near the middle of the range from the past 6 weeks or so.

Glad to see there's some de-escalation in the middle east. Really hope the ceasefire stands and there can be some peace. ✌️

Added effect of this would be that the headlines should also be cooling off and the markets won't be as headline driven because of it.

Onwards we go 🤝

$BTC Opened up with a large ~4K CME Gap today.

Over half of that has already been filled with the full gap fill sitting up to $103.6K.

Generally we've seen gaps fill early in the week when they have been created over the past few months.

But keep in mind that we're in a very headline driven market so there's big factors at play. So while the charts can give some idea, be extra careful with your risk management as things can move quick (both directions).

This $BTC cycle has been all about being patient and allocating when others don’t to.

This has always been the case to a certain degree of course. But nowadays you get a few good weeks of explosive price action followed by months of sideways & consolidating. Everything is slower compared to past cycles.

This makes it so missing these few good weeks is detrimental to your overall return this cycle. It also makes it difficult to jump on to a newly developing trend as by the time it looks good, it has often already moved a lot and/or gives no dips to get in. Risking you allocating when the price action has already stalled and the biggest part of the move is already done.

This cycle has been rewarding holding spot Bitcoin and not actively managing it. People that did so had a very comfortably cycle so far with relatively small corrections and a solid upside multiple.

$SPX Has a ton of big gaps below which were left open during the move up from the Tariff dump lows.

With stocks expected to open lower tomorrow, it can be good to watch these gaps as potential levels where price is attracted to or act as a local reversal zone.

This will impact $BTC & Crypto as well.

Update & Thoughts:

Obviously a lot is happening in the world and I'm not going to get into details. I do think the US involvement was likely to occur and is what was causing the weakness in recent days. This is also why I was extra cautious and have not looked for longs at all which has been helpful.

From here on out all that matters is if this escalates further or involved parties can start talking. Let's hope for the latter.

$BTC Has held up great relatively speaking but I'm still on the cautious side until we at least see some low timeframe strength. Alts took a big beating and are likely due for some smaller relief bounces seeing how much liquidity they took out. Most are still in a big down trend though so keep that in mind.

I'd recommend just monitoring and wait for clear setups to present themselves. In the past I would have likely been chopped up in an environment like the past 2 weeks, but being more patient and identifying the weakness in the market has actually helped me turn this into a great 2 weeks of trading.

Enjoy the remainder of your weekend. Tomorrow should get volatile. ✌️

$BTC Lots of volatility into the weekend on Friday as often see.

The weekend is starting off slow and absent of any big headline that shakes things up, I doubt we'll see much action until Monday.

$TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap Levels and regions marked how I see them.

There has been a strong bounce since the April lows which stalled in the middle of May.

Since then it has been a slow bleed down similar to previous time periods this cycle. Overall forming a lower high compared to early 2025.

$BTC Trading in this tight range for the past couple of days.

We've had FOMC and a lot of headlines happen during this time as traders have been getting chopped up in the 2% range.

There are a lot of positions that have been built up on both sides in this range and it's clear where the liquidity lies.

Currently in no place to take a trade on this but I will be looking out for a range high or low sweep and monitor the reaction from that point.

Higher timeframe $100K & $110K remain key for June.

$BTC The long term trend has been very clean. But recently, Bitcoin has struggled to break its current all time high region and has stalled out for now.

The Bull Market Support band is coming in right below and would be a good support area to watch in case price were to re-visit it at some point. This can be soon, this can be later. Meanwhile, the band moves up with price.

The cycle has now gone on for quite a while so holding on to the bull market support band will be critical to keep this cycle's momentum going.

$BTC The past month, Bitcoin Spot ETFs have taken in over $5B in net inflows.

Saylor bought about $2.2B and other companies like $GME have bought at least another 2B+.

Likely contributing to a $10B+ net inflow from ETFs and companies.

Meanwhile, price is still at thhe same level it was at 1 month ago.

If the inflows keep going then that's good as eventually you'll chew through the supply.

But if those were to stop or turn around, that could become a problem as we have seen the same thing every time since the ETFs are live. Big inflows + No price progression = Eventually leads to a local top being created.

Long term I would say that every billion bought by ETFs and Saylor is another billion away from willing sellers and that is definitely bullish in the larger timeframe. But short term it's always a reason for caution for me when price is not moving with massive inflows (or outflows).

$BTC The past month, Bitcoin Spot ETFs have taken in over $5B in net inflows.

Saylor bought about $2.2B and other companies like $GME have bought at least another 2B+.

Likely contributing to a $10B+ net inflow from ETFs and companies.

Meanwhile, price is still at the same level it was at 1 month ago.

If the inflows keep going then that's good as eventually you'll chew through the supply.

But if those were to stop or turn around, that could become a problem as we have seen the same thing every time since the ETFs are live. Big inflows + No price progression = Eventually leads to a local top being created.

Long term I would say that every billion bought by ETFs and Saylor is another billion away from willing sellers and that is definitely bullish in the larger timeframe. But short term it's always a reason for caution for me when price is not moving with massive inflows (or outflows).

This week is one of the clearest examples of how narrative follows price and not the other way around.

🔹 $BTC Green on the day: “Middle-Eastern conflict deal will be made soon! Buy the dip! Non-event!”

🔹 $BTC Red on the day: “WW3 imminent! Escalation soon! Did you sell already?”

Shows you why you should make your own assumptions and ideas. If you’re following the sentiment of the day or hour even, you will get chopped up and washed out in this environment.

Measure your risk/reward in all scenario’s and make choices accordingly.

$ETH Price action is compressing right below this big $2.8K level.

If we'd see a convincing break above $2.8K and hold there, that would be a good setup for a move to the cycle highs around ~$4K.

If we do lose this current range then $2.1K is the big high timeframe level to watch.

No reason to get over excited in either direction until this current consolidation/compression resolves.