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$BTC
Gm
Flat at the moment. Was in an ETH short but closed in profit as I'm not a fan of this grinding PA into resistance. No urgency from sellers yet.
I do think this is an area that could give a pull back though, so either something sets up during London into NY, or I'll just wait to long on a pull back lower - since higher is the weekly bias.
For longs, I'm looking at the following levels:
- H1 flat open within the D1 FVG at 103688
- Or if we get a deeper pull back, the H1 FVG inside Demand at ~ 101.6 - 102.4k
Target for the week is 108950.
Gm
Flat at the moment. Was in an ETH short but closed in profit as I'm not a fan of this grinding PA into resistance. No urgency from sellers yet.
I do think this is an area that could give a pull back though, so either something sets up during London into NY, or I'll just wait to long on a pull back lower - since higher is the weekly bias.
For longs, I'm looking at the following levels:
- H1 flat open within the D1 FVG at 103688
- Or if we get a deeper pull back, the H1 FVG inside Demand at ~ 101.6 - 102.4k
Target for the week is 108950.
Might look to punt an intraday short on $ETH if we spike above this local H1 range, tag the daily imbalance, and accept back inside the H1 range.
$XRP
As requested ...
Not one I focus on too much as I'm more of an week to week trader. But I can see the potential in this consolidation - in that if it's re-accumulation, likely sends hard once it has finished consolidating.
I don't have a specific trade plan per se, but either the current triple tap @ range low holds (technically we just missed tagging -the- level but will count it) OR we have #OneMoreLow to go into 1.39-1.4 to mirror the range manipulation zone we tagged on the upside at $3.4
So for me, if we tag 1.39-1.4 I'll look to engage. Failing that, I might look to catch the pre-range breakout if I think it's starting to look ready to pop ... hope that helps
As requested ...
Not one I focus on too much as I'm more of an week to week trader. But I can see the potential in this consolidation - in that if it's re-accumulation, likely sends hard once it has finished consolidating.
I don't have a specific trade plan per se, but either the current triple tap @ range low holds (technically we just missed tagging -the- level but will count it) OR we have #OneMoreLow to go into 1.39-1.4 to mirror the range manipulation zone we tagged on the upside at $3.4
So for me, if we tag 1.39-1.4 I'll look to engage. Failing that, I might look to catch the pre-range breakout if I think it's starting to look ready to pop ... hope that helps
Trading Range Manipulation vs. True Range Breakout.
Some notes ...
TLDR:
- If price is unable to break the range manipulation zones, then its likely just that - a move to manipulate above or below the extremes of the range.
- Look for reversals at these range manipulation zones as what often follows is acceptance back into the range and possibly a tag of the opposite range manipulation zone.
- If we *are* able to escape these range manipulation zones aka the tractor beam, then its more likely we are witnessing a true migration of value higher and price will not return to the range - then you switch from range trading to trading continuation moves as part of the trend in the direction of the true breakout.
Some notes ...
TLDR:
- If price is unable to break the range manipulation zones, then its likely just that - a move to manipulate above or below the extremes of the range.
- Look for reversals at these range manipulation zones as what often follows is acceptance back into the range and possibly a tag of the opposite range manipulation zone.
- If we *are* able to escape these range manipulation zones aka the tractor beam, then its more likely we are witnessing a true migration of value higher and price will not return to the range - then you switch from range trading to trading continuation moves as part of the trend in the direction of the true breakout.
$BTC
Gm
Yesterday's trade was high probability. Was an A+ in my book.
Today I'm not as sure - but loose plan going into the day is as follows:
Key Levels:
- 106.5k Swing High
- 103.7k H1 flat open
- 102.7k H1 CSD level
- 101-102k FVG inside Demand (T3)
If we are going to see Tuesday manipulation for a move lower, this is the level that is likely targeted.
What is essential for the setup today is: I need to see displacement through the high at 105.6k, either on the leg up or on the reversal (or both).
My ideal setup would be for an imbalance to print through this level and it get inverted, with a market structure shift. Then I'd look for intraday shorts targeting downside levels mentioned.
Yesterday's setup - was happy to layer bids as the trade idea was validated on that timeframe. Today's setup, need the trigger to enter (i.e. not placing asks beforehand).
Gm
Yesterday's trade was high probability. Was an A+ in my book.
Today I'm not as sure - but loose plan going into the day is as follows:
Key Levels:
- 106.5k Swing High
- 103.7k H1 flat open
- 102.7k H1 CSD level
- 101-102k FVG inside Demand (T3)
If we are going to see Tuesday manipulation for a move lower, this is the level that is likely targeted.
What is essential for the setup today is: I need to see displacement through the high at 105.6k, either on the leg up or on the reversal (or both).
My ideal setup would be for an imbalance to print through this level and it get inverted, with a market structure shift. Then I'd look for intraday shorts targeting downside levels mentioned.
Yesterday's setup - was happy to layer bids as the trade idea was validated on that timeframe. Today's setup, need the trigger to enter (i.e. not placing asks beforehand).
$HYPE
Chance we push back up to 40s but that's pretty heavy supply above the range.
IMO we'll need to at least tag those equal lows at 30.64 before we're able to crack it.
I'm interested in the following levels as a buyer:
- 30.64
- 25.6 - 28.3
For the higher probability trade, you wait until we then reclaim range low at 30.64 after tagging those levels. OR you look for a lower timeframe entry model into said levels.
GL
Chance we push back up to 40s but that's pretty heavy supply above the range.
IMO we'll need to at least tag those equal lows at 30.64 before we're able to crack it.
I'm interested in the following levels as a buyer:
- 30.64
- 25.6 - 28.3
For the higher probability trade, you wait until we then reclaim range low at 30.64 after tagging those levels. OR you look for a lower timeframe entry model into said levels.
GL
Just back at the charts after touching a lot of grass at the weekend.
$BTC - Loose plan going into the week
Range low swept with Sunday closing as an SFP. I like the H1 consolidation below the range and push above - looks good enough to at least put in a temporary bottom here.
Happy to hunt longs ~ range low down to 99.3k targeting 103.4k - 105k or so.
Then we'll see.
$BTC - Loose plan going into the week
Range low swept with Sunday closing as an SFP. I like the H1 consolidation below the range and push above - looks good enough to at least put in a temporary bottom here.
Happy to hunt longs ~ range low down to 99.3k targeting 103.4k - 105k or so.
Then we'll see.
People tend to focus on the wrong things:
- is the bottom in?
- where is max pain?
- is the cycle over?
- when alt season?
- what price will BTC reach at ATH?
Your job as a trader is to identify opportunity, understand the market conditions you are trading in, focus on quality execution and manage risk. Nothing more, nothing less. All the abstract bs just gets in the way of what really matters. It’s an illusion to the task at hand.
Aim to extract 2-3R per day, week, month, depending on what type of trader you are and focus on consistency - or at least know when to engage to deliver the most optimal outcome.
The market is simply a machine that provides opportunity to extract value from. You decide when and how to engage. No need for the mental gymnastics.
Happy Sunday.
- is the bottom in?
- where is max pain?
- is the cycle over?
- when alt season?
- what price will BTC reach at ATH?
Your job as a trader is to identify opportunity, understand the market conditions you are trading in, focus on quality execution and manage risk. Nothing more, nothing less. All the abstract bs just gets in the way of what really matters. It’s an illusion to the task at hand.
Aim to extract 2-3R per day, week, month, depending on what type of trader you are and focus on consistency - or at least know when to engage to deliver the most optimal outcome.
The market is simply a machine that provides opportunity to extract value from. You decide when and how to engage. No need for the mental gymnastics.
Happy Sunday.
$PEPE has been forming an interesting consolidation here into a weekly imbalance.
As soon as price starts closing daily candles above a prior candle that closed below short term lows, I will engage.
As soon as price starts closing daily candles above a prior candle that closed below short term lows, I will engage.
$BTC
US Bank Holiday - expecting a quiet day. Plans remain the same nonetheless. Trading in a local range - waiting for one side to be tagged before positioning.
Also gm
US Bank Holiday - expecting a quiet day. Plans remain the same nonetheless. Trading in a local range - waiting for one side to be tagged before positioning.
Also gm
$BTC
Gm
Nothing too high probability for me today until we rinse either side. We're in a range with contracting price action - creating lower highs and higher lows.
I have some theories as to what price will do, but instead of posting several elaborate plans, will just wait until one of my key levels is tagged.
If we tag 102.6k prior to taking out Monday's high, I'd be interested in a sweep and reclaim to position long. If instead we go higher first (above 109) then I have other plans. FOMC later.
GL
Gm
Nothing too high probability for me today until we rinse either side. We're in a range with contracting price action - creating lower highs and higher lows.
I have some theories as to what price will do, but instead of posting several elaborate plans, will just wait until one of my key levels is tagged.
If we tag 102.6k prior to taking out Monday's high, I'd be interested in a sweep and reclaim to position long. If instead we go higher first (above 109) then I have other plans. FOMC later.
GL
I love what $ETH is doing here.
We tagged 50% of the down closed candle that took out the short term lows within the range. Great place to hold and to form long ideas from. RSI is also in a really good spot on the daily chart.
I just don't know how stops at 2.3k range low get away with it given the weekly wick structure. Surely they get a rinse one way or another.
Near term though, supports my idea of higher early week.
We tagged 50% of the down closed candle that took out the short term lows within the range. Great place to hold and to form long ideas from. RSI is also in a really good spot on the daily chart.
I just don't know how stops at 2.3k range low get away with it given the weekly wick structure. Surely they get a rinse one way or another.
Near term though, supports my idea of higher early week.
$CRV
Likely that we see a push higher into 0.7 or so into local supply after taking the liquidity last week.
Reclaim 0.75 for expansion.
Or
We have #OneMoreLow on our hands, with either:
A) Higher Low to complete a triple tap type setup, OR
B) A lower low into 0.47-0.50
If we get B, would be max opportunity and R:R territory imo. Heavily depends on what we get with BTC of course. I think at least some type of low, whether A or B is likely after we tag local supply. Easy invalidation > 0.75 for the moon mission.
Base case is 0.7-0.72 -> Another Low (A or B) then higher
Likely that we see a push higher into 0.7 or so into local supply after taking the liquidity last week.
Reclaim 0.75 for expansion.
Or
We have #OneMoreLow on our hands, with either:
A) Higher Low to complete a triple tap type setup, OR
B) A lower low into 0.47-0.50
If we get B, would be max opportunity and R:R territory imo. Heavily depends on what we get with BTC of course. I think at least some type of low, whether A or B is likely after we tag local supply. Easy invalidation > 0.75 for the moon mission.
Base case is 0.7-0.72 -> Another Low (A or B) then higher
$BTC
GM
Interesting chart setup for this week with clear draws to the upside and downside. Less of a directional bias out of the gate so will let Monday develop before engaging. Tuesday and Wednesday are our red folder news days with FOMC on the Wednesday.
I think we could see an early week push given the position of the Daily RSI coming off the 50% level as well as last week's key level at 103k holding.
Have a feeling we will spend more time and/or see further downside before this overall consolidation resolves, so I am interested in shorts on an early upside push. Just keep in mind the HTF trend is still bullish so shorts are generally risky. No blind trades though. We want to see a HTF levels of interest tagged followed by a LTF trigger.
Levels of Interest:
For Shorts:
- 110k Equal Highs
- 108k BPR
For Longs:
- 102.6k Weekly Draw
- 100.3k Range Low
Should have a more concrete / directional plan tomorrow.
GL
GM
Interesting chart setup for this week with clear draws to the upside and downside. Less of a directional bias out of the gate so will let Monday develop before engaging. Tuesday and Wednesday are our red folder news days with FOMC on the Wednesday.
I think we could see an early week push given the position of the Daily RSI coming off the 50% level as well as last week's key level at 103k holding.
Have a feeling we will spend more time and/or see further downside before this overall consolidation resolves, so I am interested in shorts on an early upside push. Just keep in mind the HTF trend is still bullish so shorts are generally risky. No blind trades though. We want to see a HTF levels of interest tagged followed by a LTF trigger.
Levels of Interest:
For Shorts:
- 110k Equal Highs
- 108k BPR
For Longs:
- 102.6k Weekly Draw
- 100.3k Range Low
Should have a more concrete / directional plan tomorrow.
GL
You don’t always need to have directional risk in the markets.
When some of my downside targets hit today, many asked “ready to long?”
Sometimes the best position is no position. I think it’s either fomo or ego that makes this a difficult stance for people to take.
Usually, when price hits an upside or downside extreme - it’s better to wait, have no directional risk, then re-engage the market only when a quality setup is presented and a firm bias is established - approaching the market with patience, and more importantly - from a place of emotional balance.
Your worst trades will come from a place of emotional imbalance.
When some of my downside targets hit today, many asked “ready to long?”
Sometimes the best position is no position. I think it’s either fomo or ego that makes this a difficult stance for people to take.
Usually, when price hits an upside or downside extreme - it’s better to wait, have no directional risk, then re-engage the market only when a quality setup is presented and a firm bias is established - approaching the market with patience, and more importantly - from a place of emotional balance.
Your worst trades will come from a place of emotional imbalance.
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