It feels similar to the weeks right before the Q4 risk on szn late last year.
This is the calm before the storm.
$BTC is forming a bull flag on the HTF. In the short term, we may see a slight pullback to $100-102K. On a HTF, it looks ready. Bullish.
$ETH looks like it just did a spring test after over a year-long accumulation range. Should make higher lows from here. Bullish.
#Others (Total MC excluding Top 10) just retested the breakout of a 6-month downtrend. The chart sits in the same position it was in back in Sep 2024. We all know what followed.
[ Charts below ]
Macro is lining up (rate cuts, stealth QE, etc.), stocks are pumping, regulation is shifting in favor of crypto, and $ETH / $BTC look strong.
The groundwork is laid, and the writing is on the wall. At this point, it's only a matter of time.
It's easy to see this pushing $5B+ when the market catches on to how mispriced these are.
Think of the ETH utility szn in 2023 (Unibot went up 100x+ in 2 months starting in June '23).
We were sending absolute larps to hundreds of millions with claims of solid fundamentals.
Now we have real revenues (in the tens of millions), huge Web 2 giants involved (billion & trillion dollar companies as partners/backers), and real user growth (in the millions of MAUs).
(Not to mention the deflationary tokenomics.)
The fundamentals rival tokens in the Top 250 (100x+ from here).
The BEST R/R opportunities available in the market now lie within the ICM narrative.
This is what we have been asking for the whole time. Good projects that leverage blockchain tech to bring real-world value.
We have that. The market doesn't know it yet.
Don't fade it because you don't like that it's on Solana and not Base/ETH.
No matter how much you hate memecoins, how many people actually win or lose, or how much you hate the hypergambling / hyperrotationary attitude of traders.
Alt season has already started. #TOTAL3 tells us all we need to know.
While Bitcoin has surpassed its previous cycle's ATH, #TOTAL3 hasn't made new highs.
This time isn't different. This chart will make new highs.
Capital will flow into alts like it did before, but it won’t be the same, it will rhyme.
You can’t buy anything, expecting it to go up.
The market has matured by leaps and bounds since last cycle. Better data analytics, more savvy investors / traders / grifters, more sophisticated tools, and better tokenomics.
There’s more narratives, more chains, and way more tokens to choose from.
There are so much more factors at play.
Even with that, tokens will go parabolic. If we play it right, there are opportunities everywhere
Last cycle we added almost $1T to the Altcoin market. From $35B in 2019 to $1T at the peak in 2021, with mostly retail money (#1 below).
Now, we see trillions of dollars from TradFi are ready to flow into this space. Hundreds of billions have already. With more liquidity coming, driven by rate cuts, treasury vehicles, ETFs, and adoption (institutional + retail).
So far, $900B flowed into altcoins (#2 below).
Wouldn’t surprise me to see us add $1-2T, at least, at our peak. Target $2T (#3 below). It will take time for this to work through the market.
While the cycle still has time to play out, now is the time to position in narratives.
Quality projects are at generational entries. Pick your narratives & tokens. This chart looks ready to melt up. Time to get into position.
Some of the most bullish catalysts for the market have come during peak war FUD.
Can't help but feel we go much higher once the war talk ends and market prices in:
→ Genius Act → ETH Staking ETF → Market structure bill → Tarriff deals being signed → SOL ETF coming → More crypto treasury vehicles coming → Rate cuts ahead of us
etc.
As bearish as things have been, can't help but be even more bullish.
Web 2 is coming to Web 3. Many builders are choosing Solana. Projects within the Believe Eco have the highest R/R relative to the underlying fundamentals.
The play is to consolidate focus and capital in preparation for the next run up.
There is a ton of opportunity in this market but you can’t catch every runner.
Have a big picture framework, figure out where the R/R is the juiciest within it, and focus.
I have 3 key thesis for the cycle that anchor my trading/allocation:
1️⃣ $SOL to $1000+: Solana will be recognized as the consumer chain. I expect it to continue to attract Web 2 builders and entrepreneurs. This is why I believe ICM/SOL Utility have a long way to go. Market structure bill is likely a tailwind.
2️⃣ $ETH to $15K: ETH is on its way to becoming the internet bond. Staking ETF is coming, ETH is deflationary, and institutional adoption will skyrocket with the yield component. I plan to catch solid bullish setups on ETH on HL.
3️⃣ HODLing LT plays (on ETH/Base): As bullish as I am on Solana, I still believe there is a ton of valuable projects on ETH & Base. It’s still the best ecosystems for LT holders. Market structure bill is likely a tailwind here too. Bullish for L1s, DeFi, and AI.
For now, we wait. In the meantime, adjust our plans, routine, and focus based on what the market is giving us. Allocate accordingly. Prioritize plays with solid R/R & fundamentals.