The no war administration is at war with Iran. Markets wont like it. S&P500 is 11 weeks into a Cycle that has seen a big run up to resistance, looks like a period of risk off is likely until this hopefully settles down.
$BTC holding up reasonably well, but also in a fragile position with a failed Cycle Daily below $100k. What was a constructive chart is now breaking down. Not surprising ALT's are where money goes to die this cycle.
The narrative around it is building quickly, flows are high, sentiment low, the price action, coupled with where we stand in the crypto cycle, is all very favorable.
Honestly, wouldn't be at all surprised with a 6-week move to $4,000.
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Seeing talk of a Bitcoin “Saylor Super Cycle” - essentially an Institutional Super Cycle, so here’s an idea I’ve floated before on how that could unfold.
It’s just a theory. Way too many variables to call it more than that.
But as we get favorable US regulations, ETF flows, IPOs, corporate treasury adoption, growing sovereign interest, and a dovish, administration aligned Fed chair, layered on top of 16 years of boom/bust dynamics — then all the ingredients are there for a final, "All-In", Dot-Com style Bitcoin/crypto blowoff.
In this scenario, the current 4-year cycle runs deeper than usual, gets interrupted by a shorter bear, then sets the stage for a final euphoric rally later in the presidential term. That would lead into a left-translated cycle and, potentially, the first real secular crypto bear ('27–'30).
Just a theory. But thinking we’ve somehow evolved past long bear markets is naive.
$ETH is an obvious play right now and all the narratives will continue to build around it as positive sentiment grows. Also, slightly later Cycle stage vibes.
Confidence and momentum have returned. The Bitcoin weekly cycle is on only week 5 (of 24 avg). If it can clear the ATH hurdle, likely not to look back for a couple of months.
Feels like this bullish sentiment shift (in crypto) has a broader appeal (Alt’s, nft, meme, DeFi,etc) than any prior move this cycle. Obviously far too early to know if it can stick.