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If @jessepollak and @base want @zora to succeed, why won’t they launch their own creator coins?
Is @jessepollak and @base want @zora to succeed, why won’t they launch their own creator coins?
Ethereum L2s are in trouble... is Bitcoin the solution?
A Key Takeaway from my latest @MessariCrypto
report, "Between a Rock and a Hard Place: L2 Economics."
Shrinking fee revenues, @base ’s dominance, intensifying competition from other L2s and Ethereum L1, and valuations detached from fundamentals have put most L2s on unstable footing. Surviving this environment will require bold strategic shifts.
Perhaps the boldest of them all is a pivot to Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin L2 opportunity is interesting for 3 main reasons:
1) The Bitcoin network itself cannot offer smart contract capabilities or other functionalities offered by L2s, unlike Ethereum.
2) There are no entrenched incumbents in the ecosystem. Using bridged BTC as a proxy for adoption, no single network holds more than roughly 30% of the total supply, with most holding well below 10%. New entrants should have no trouble competing.
3) $BTC, the asset, offers the strongest economic base out of all cryptoassets.
Some teams, like @Starknet, are already making this shift to Bitcoin. Over time, I fully expect more Ethereum L2s to "abandon ship" and pivot to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
A Key Takeaway from my latest @MessariCrypto
report, "Between a Rock and a Hard Place: L2 Economics."
Shrinking fee revenues, @base ’s dominance, intensifying competition from other L2s and Ethereum L1, and valuations detached from fundamentals have put most L2s on unstable footing. Surviving this environment will require bold strategic shifts.
Perhaps the boldest of them all is a pivot to Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin L2 opportunity is interesting for 3 main reasons:
1) The Bitcoin network itself cannot offer smart contract capabilities or other functionalities offered by L2s, unlike Ethereum.
2) There are no entrenched incumbents in the ecosystem. Using bridged BTC as a proxy for adoption, no single network holds more than roughly 30% of the total supply, with most holding well below 10%. New entrants should have no trouble competing.
3) $BTC, the asset, offers the strongest economic base out of all cryptoassets.
Some teams, like @Starknet, are already making this shift to Bitcoin. Over time, I fully expect more Ethereum L2s to "abandon ship" and pivot to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Ethereum L2s are in trouble... is Bitcoin the solution?
A Key Takeaway from my latest @MessariCrypto report, "Between a Rock and a Hard Place: L2 Economics."
Shrinking fee revenues, @base’s sweeping market share, intensifying competition from other L2s and Ethereum L1, and valuations detached from fundamentals have put most L2s on unstable footing. Surviving this environment will require bold strategic shifts.
Perhaps the boldest of them all is a pivot to Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin L2 opportunity is interesting for 3 main reasons:
1) The Bitcoin network itself cannot offer smart contract capabilities or other functionalities offered by L2s, unlike Ethereum.
2) There are no entrenched incumbents in the ecosystem. Using bridged BTC as a proxy for adoption, no single network holds more than roughly 30% of the total supply, with most holding well below 10%. New entrants should have no trouble competing.
3) $BTC the asset, offers the strongest economic base out of all cryptoassets.
Some teams, like @Starknet, are already making this shift to Bitcoin. Over time, I fully expect more Ethereum L2s to "abandon ship" and pivot to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
A Key Takeaway from my latest @MessariCrypto report, "Between a Rock and a Hard Place: L2 Economics."
Shrinking fee revenues, @base’s sweeping market share, intensifying competition from other L2s and Ethereum L1, and valuations detached from fundamentals have put most L2s on unstable footing. Surviving this environment will require bold strategic shifts.
Perhaps the boldest of them all is a pivot to Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin L2 opportunity is interesting for 3 main reasons:
1) The Bitcoin network itself cannot offer smart contract capabilities or other functionalities offered by L2s, unlike Ethereum.
2) There are no entrenched incumbents in the ecosystem. Using bridged BTC as a proxy for adoption, no single network holds more than roughly 30% of the total supply, with most holding well below 10%. New entrants should have no trouble competing.
3) $BTC the asset, offers the strongest economic base out of all cryptoassets.
Some teams, like @Starknet, are already making this shift to Bitcoin. Over time, I fully expect more Ethereum L2s to "abandon ship" and pivot to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
I've been building a position in @badbunnz_ NFTs as I believe they're the best way to get liquid exposure to @megaeth_labs and the @0xMegaMafia.
Bad Bunnz have cemented themselves as the PFP NFT of choice for the MegaETH ecosystem, which makes them a prime candidate for MegaMafia airdrops.
Let's do some quick math 👇
Current mcap of Bad Bunnz = $3.5M.
First cohort of MegaMafia projects (15 projects) raised $40M in venture, let's assume their collective valuation is $400M.
MegaMafia 2.0 (an additional 15 projects) is currently in progress; let's assume its collective valuation is half of the first cohort's ($200M).
Collective MegaMafia FDV = $600M, or $20M FDV per project.
(Note: This is probably undershooting it as @GTE_XYZ just reportedly raised at a $150 - $160M valuation, which alone is more than 25% of my above estimate.)
Bad Bunnz mcap ($3.5M) / MegaMafia FDV ($600M) = 0.58%
Based on my assumptions, the market is currently pricing in Bad Bunnz receiving ~0.58% of the total token supply of MegaMafia projects.
This seems quite low, especially if you have even more bullish projections about the MegaMafia ($1B FDV implies 0.35% of supply).
The only caveat is @TheFluffleNFT. However, since it is a Soulbound NFT, it is less attractive as both a speculation vehicle and an airdrop target.
Finally, as a sanity check, we can compare to @HyperliquidX and @HypioHL.
Despite Hyperliquid having an unofficial (although unreleased) NFT collection, Wealthy Hypio Babies trade at a $20 million market cap. In other words, I don't think Fluffle NFTs will be an issue for Bad Bunnz.
Bad Bunnz have cemented themselves as the PFP NFT of choice for the MegaETH ecosystem, which makes them a prime candidate for MegaMafia airdrops.
Let's do some quick math 👇
Current mcap of Bad Bunnz = $3.5M.
First cohort of MegaMafia projects (15 projects) raised $40M in venture, let's assume their collective valuation is $400M.
MegaMafia 2.0 (an additional 15 projects) is currently in progress; let's assume its collective valuation is half of the first cohort's ($200M).
Collective MegaMafia FDV = $600M, or $20M FDV per project.
(Note: This is probably undershooting it as @GTE_XYZ just reportedly raised at a $150 - $160M valuation, which alone is more than 25% of my above estimate.)
Bad Bunnz mcap ($3.5M) / MegaMafia FDV ($600M) = 0.58%
Based on my assumptions, the market is currently pricing in Bad Bunnz receiving ~0.58% of the total token supply of MegaMafia projects.
This seems quite low, especially if you have even more bullish projections about the MegaMafia ($1B FDV implies 0.35% of supply).
The only caveat is @TheFluffleNFT. However, since it is a Soulbound NFT, it is less attractive as both a speculation vehicle and an airdrop target.
Finally, as a sanity check, we can compare to @HyperliquidX and @HypioHL.
Despite Hyperliquid having an unofficial (although unreleased) NFT collection, Wealthy Hypio Babies trade at a $20 million market cap. In other words, I don't think Fluffle NFTs will be an issue for Bad Bunnz.
Very impressed with @zora, might start coining things https://zora.co/avgjoescrypto
Very impress with @zora actually, might start coining things https://zora.co/avgjoescrypto
L2 Valuations are broken.
A Key Takeaway from my latest @MessariCrypto report.
Based on the available data on @growthepie_eth, the median P/S multiple (FDV divided by annualized May network fees) of L2 tokens is 1,447x, while the average is even higher at 3,481x.
High P/S ratios are exhibited across nearly all L2s, regardless of independent factors such as FDV, tech stack, use case, etc.
Network fees, typically the largest or sole revenue stream returned to tokenholders, have been falling, not rising, across the sector. Such aggressive pricing presumes growth trajectories that current revenue trends do not justify.
And revenue is only part of the equation: operating costs occur largely offchain and are seldom disclosed, so true net income is opaque at best.
Valuations have decoupled from fundamentals, and repricing feels less a question of if than when.
A Key Takeaway from my latest @MessariCrypto report.
Based on the available data on @growthepie_eth, the median P/S multiple (FDV divided by annualized May network fees) of L2 tokens is 1,447x, while the average is even higher at 3,481x.
High P/S ratios are exhibited across nearly all L2s, regardless of independent factors such as FDV, tech stack, use case, etc.
Network fees, typically the largest or sole revenue stream returned to tokenholders, have been falling, not rising, across the sector. Such aggressive pricing presumes growth trajectories that current revenue trends do not justify.
And revenue is only part of the equation: operating costs occur largely offchain and are seldom disclosed, so true net income is opaque at best.
Valuations have decoupled from fundamentals, and repricing feels less a question of if than when.
If you are fundamentally bullish on Ethereum, what’s the rationale for buying $ETH ($300B mc) over $COIN ($75B mc)?
Why isn’t there a single good token to buy on Ink
Think it may be time to start beta-chasing on $HYPE as it now has a 92% dominance over the entire perpetual market.
This is pretty significant when compared to other sectors. Ex:
- PoS: $ETH at 54%
- Lending: $AAVE at 53%
- Stablecoins: $ENA at 45%
While I don’t expect HYPE to fall to a 50% share, even a drop to 80% at current valuations is a $2B opportunity 👀
This is pretty significant when compared to other sectors. Ex:
- PoS: $ETH at 54%
- Lending: $AAVE at 53%
- Stablecoins: $ENA at 45%
While I don’t expect HYPE to fall to a 50% share, even a drop to 80% at current valuations is a $2B opportunity 👀
Absolutely insane that the .eth’s solution to years of underperformance is to “increase your price target.”
Despite attention on Alkanes going parabolic amongst the broader Bitcoin community, very few are actually thinking about where the value will accrue.
Alkanes’ value comes from its ability to enable use cases not possible with Ordinals/Runes: DEXs, lending, 404s, etc.
The value will flow to the assets associated with these new use cases. Figuring out how to get exposure to those assets should be your top priority.
Alkanes’ value comes from its ability to enable use cases not possible with Ordinals/Runes: DEXs, lending, 404s, etc.
The value will flow to the assets associated with these new use cases. Figuring out how to get exposure to those assets should be your top priority.
All the yapyo yappers are going to be extremely disappointed when they find out there is $0 to extract from Arbitrum
I'm excited to debut a new report series from @MessariCrypto:
The Messari Monthly!
As the name suggests, this is a monthly publication by the Messari Enterprise research team.
In our work, we often uncover interesting projects/topics that may not yet warrant a full deep dive, but still deserve attention. This series bridges the gap between our long-form reports and shorter content.
Each edition includes 5 sections, each written by one of:
@SteimetzKinji, @capradavis, @defi_monk, @dylangbane, and @0xSynthesis1 (I'll chime in occasionally too)
This month, we covered:
- The rise of @AxiomExchange
- Challengers to @pumpdotfun
- @HyperliquidX's HyperEVM
- @helium_mobile's Growth
- Alkanes by @oylwallet
Check out the full report below!
The Messari Monthly!
As the name suggests, this is a monthly publication by the Messari Enterprise research team.
In our work, we often uncover interesting projects/topics that may not yet warrant a full deep dive, but still deserve attention. This series bridges the gap between our long-form reports and shorter content.
Each edition includes 5 sections, each written by one of:
@SteimetzKinji, @capradavis, @defi_monk, @dylangbane, and @0xSynthesis1 (I'll chime in occasionally too)
This month, we covered:
- The rise of @AxiomExchange
- Challengers to @pumpdotfun
- @HyperliquidX's HyperEVM
- @helium_mobile's Growth
- Alkanes by @oylwallet
Check out the full report below!
Man, if @pumpdotfun really raises a yard and doesn't airdrop any of its token, it really just solidifies the Solana ecosystem as the griftiest/scammiest ecosystem out there
$LOUD hasn’t even be out for 24 hours why are people writing it off as a failure?
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