The crypto market is trading lower today as renewed regulatory pressure, a broad deleveraging in derivatives, and a technical breakdown across major charts weigh on sentiment. The global crypto market cap fell 0.84% over the past 24 hours and is now hovering near $2.98 trillion, extending a weekly drop of about 5.4%.
Bitcoin remains pinned near $91,150, while Ethereum trades just above $3,018, both showing muted reactions after Wednesday’s brief rebound.
Here’s a full breakdown of why crypto is down today and what traders should watch next.
1. The Crypto Market Drops Below Key Technical Levels
The total crypto market cap has slid from the recent swing high of $3.34 trillion and is now trending below the 30-day simple moving average (SMA).
Heikin Ashi candles continue to print narrow-bodied consolidation with weak momentum — a sign sellers remain in control but may be losing strength.
Key technical signals:
Total market cap still below the 30-day SMA
Price sitting just above the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $2.75T
RSI(14) at 25.9, indicating oversold conditions
Bollinger Bands widening, signaling elevated volatility
Technically, the market is fragile and still lacks a clear reversal candle.
2. Regulatory Pressure Escalates, Pressuring Sentiment
Fresh regulatory developments added uncertainty:
South Africa’s central bank warned that 7.8 million crypto users and $1.5B in digital assets are sitting outside formal oversight.
The U.S. SEC is examining Fed chair candidate Kevin Hassett’s links to Coinbase.
The EU introduced new crypto data-sharing rules requiring strict collection and reporting to tax authorities.
Regulatory uncertainty reduces institutional appetite, especially for altcoins, which are more vulnerable when liquidity thins out.
3. A Derivatives Market Reset Is Underway
Much of the sell-off is tied to the unwinding of leveraged positions.
Recent derivatives data:
Open interest dropped 2.9% to $781B
Funding rates fell 4,804% to near-flat at +0.00186%
Bitcoin liquidations decreased 87% to $2.21 million, indicating most leverage has already been flushed out
This is a typical post-liquidation cooldown.
It reduces the risk of cascading sell-offs but also shows bulls aren’t rushing back in.
4. Macroeconomic Uncertainty Still Overshadows Risk Assets
Markets were quiet Thursday as the U.S. remained closed for Thanksgiving and will close early Friday. But macro expectations are shifting quickly.
The Federal Reserve is now 87% likely to cut rates in December, according to Polymarket — a dramatic reversal from last week’s 39%.
Analysts highlight:
Expectations of rate cuts are stabilizing sentiment.
Bearish options premiums are easing.
Defensive hedging is being unwound.
As Derive.xyz’s Sean Dawson put it:
“Markets are balancing on a knife’s edge, but sentiment has stabilised meaningfully as expectations of a rate cut continue to recover.”
Sygnum’s Fabian Dori added that this crash appears “excessive, not structural,” signaling the cycle may not be over.
5. Crypto Sentiment Improves After 18-Day Extreme Fear Streak
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 20 (Fear), finally exiting Extreme Fear after 18 consecutive days.
Whale behavior supports the shift.
On-chain analytics from Santiment show large wallets accumulating during the dip while retail traders continue to sell — a divergence that has historically preceded reversals.
Crypto Winners and Losers Today
Among the top 10:
Bitcoin (BTC): down 0.2% to $91,150
Ethereum (ETH): down 0.1% to $3,018
Solana (SOL): down 1.9%
Dogecoin (DOGE): down 1.6%
XRP: up 0.8% to $2.21
Tron (TRX): up 1.2%
Top 100:
Biggest loser: Kaspa (KAS), down 8%
Biggest winner: Sky (SKY), up 8%
Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch
Bitcoin’s intraday range:
Low: $90,485
High: $91,826
Key levels:
Support: $90,000, then $88,000, then $86,500
Resistance: $92,000–$94,000
Breakout zone: $98,000–$101,972
Holding above $90,000 keeps the recovery narrative intact.
Ethereum Price Levels to Watch
ETH traded between $2,986 and $3,042 today.
Key levels:
Support: $2,990, then $2,900–$2,850
Bullish trigger: Close above $3,100
ETH is up 11.6% over the past week despite today’s weakness.
ETF Flows Show Mixed Signals
U.S. ETFs were paused Thursday due to the holiday, but Wednesday’s inflows were strong:
BTC spot ETFs: +$21.12M
ETH spot ETFs: +$60.82M
SOL spot ETFs: –$8.1M (first red day since launch)
CalPERS, one of the world’s largest pension funds, reported heavy losses on its Strategy holdings as the stock plunged 45% this quarter.
What Happens Next? Key Events to Watch
The next 48 hours will determine direction:
Friday’s Fed liquidity data
Liquidity injections could stabilize risk assets.
Bitcoin's $85K–$92K range
Reclaiming $92K–$94K would likely spark a broader rally.
Total market cap reclaiming $3.1T–$3.2T
This would confirm a recovery setup.
Until then, expect choppy sideways action and defensive positioning.
