Bitcoin’s macro cycle always tells a bigger story beyond short-term volatility. While lower timeframes create noise, the macro trend shows where BTC truly stands in the current bull cycle—and what comes next.



đŸ”¶ 1. Bitcoin Macro Cycle Position


Historically, Bitcoin follows a 4-phase cycle:

1ïžâƒŁ Accumulation – Smart money loads quietly

2ïžâƒŁ Expansion / Bull Phase – Trend accelerates

3ïžâƒŁ Distribution – Market tops form slowly

4ïžâƒŁ Correction / Bear Market – Deep resets


📌 Current Position:

BTC is in a Late Expansion → Early Distribution phase.



  • New ATH attempts


  • Higher volatility


  • Liquidity grabs


  • Healthy corrections expected


This is a mature bull stage, not a fresh uptrend.



đŸ”¶ 2. Long-Term Trend Outlook


Macro remains bullish, supported by:

✔ ETF inflows (even if slower, still net positive)

✔ Post-halving supply shock

✔ Institutional accumulation

✔ Gradual improvement in global liquidity


Short-term corrections of 10–20% are normal and healthy in this phase.



đŸ”¶ 3. Macro Support Zones


These levels matter for long-term investors:



  • $84,500 – $80,000 → First strong macro support


  • $75,000 – $72,000 → Re-accumulation zone


  • $68,000 – $65,500 → Deep discount (only likely in global risk-off conditions)



đŸ”¶ 4. Macro Resistance / Cycle Top Zones



  • $97,000 – $100,000 → Heavy psychological resistance


  • $112,000 – $118,000 → Strong candidate for cycle top


  • $135,000+ → Only if global liquidity expands aggressively



đŸ”¶ 5. Macro Indicators (Still Bullish)


✔ Price above 200-Day MA

✔ Bitcoin hashrate at all-time highs

✔ Long-term holders at near-peak accumulation

✔ Miners stable, though slightly pressured


These point toward bullish macro momentum, not a completed cycle top.


$BTC

đŸ”¶ 6. Cycle Outlook (Next 3–6 Months)


📌 Most Probable Scenario:



  • BTC consolidates between $80K – $100K


  • Volatile range → liquidity hunts → new ATH attempts


  • Slow grind upward rather than a parabolic blow-off


📌 Risk Scenario:



  • If global liquidity tightens → retest towards $72K – $75K



đŸ”¶ 7. Long-Term BTC Thesis (Why Cycle Still Bullish)



  • Post-halving supply reduction


  • Institutional adoption rising


  • Strengthening “Bitcoin as macro hedge” narrative


  • BTC dominance increasing


  • On-chain accumulation > distribution


Bottom Line:

Bitcoin remains in a powerful bull cycle—but entering a mature stage where volatility rises and trends slow down. Macro remains bullish, even if short-term pullbacks happen.