Nvidia now holds more than 8% of the S&P 500, the largest weight for any one stock in the index since records began in 1981, according to data from CNBC.
The company’s market value closed Monday at about $4.5 trillion, giving it unprecedented sway over the benchmark. This historic share of the index comes after a massive run in its stock price, powered by demand for its chips since late 2022.
The rally has been relentless. Nvidia’s stock soared 239% in 2023, climbed 171% in 2024, and has already risen 36% in 2025 through Monday’s close. Over the past three months alone, as the market recovered from April’s tariff-related drop, the stock jumped 56%.
Nearly nine out of ten Wall Street analysts covering the company have it rated as a buy. The stock now trades at 59 times its trailing 12-month earnings, based on FactSet figures, reflecting investor demand for its position in the AI market.
China risks and political agreements
D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, who has a neutral rating on Nvidia, set a $135 price target that implies a 26% fall from current levels. He pointed to China as a major risk.
Official reports show low double-digit sales into China, but Luria noted that many other shipments end up there indirectly, either to Chinese firms based overseas or through resellers who move the products into the country. “It’s a big part of their sales that is at risk from either further action by the U.S. or by further restrictions from China,” he said.
Over the weekend, the Financial Times reported that Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices reached an agreement with the U.S. government to give 15% of revenue from chips sold in China in exchange for export licenses.
Wells Fargo estimated that the deal could push Nvidia’s growth higher by more than 20%. Luria said the arrangement could allow sales of the B30 chip later this year or in 2026, but stressed that the outcome remains uncertain.
Infrastructure bottlenecks and rising competition
Even with demand at record highs, Nvidia’s output could be limited by infrastructure. Luria said customers now face delays not because of chip shortages, but because of data center requirements.
Operators need enough power grid capacity and HVAC systems to run the chips, and those resources are already strained. He warned that rising electricity demand from data centers is so steep that power availability itself could slow Nvidia’s growth.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, raised another concern; competition. Amazon Web Services has been building alternatives to Nvidia’s GPUs to cut AI training costs.
Boockvar noted that Nvidia’s current 75% gross profit margin will be hard to keep as the semiconductor business remains competitive and cyclical. He added that some of Nvidia’s biggest customers are also working toward becoming direct rivals, which could eventually erode its dominance in AI infrastructure.
Nvidia’s unmatched influence on the S&P 500 now ties the index’s performance closely to its share price. While its rise has been powered by demand for AI chips, the threats from political tensions, energy constraints, and aggressive competitors remain firmly in play.
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