#BounceBitPrime ($BB ) Price Analysis — August 10, 2025 @BounceBit #bouncebit

Price & Structure: BB experienced a prolonged downtrend after its ATH of ~$0.86 in June 2024; an ATL of ~$0.0736 was seen on June 22, 2025. In recent weeks, a recovery attempt has been made within the $0.10–0.15 range.

Key Levels:

Supports: $0.105–0.110, $0.095; structural support: $0.0736 (ATL).

Resistances: $0.145–0.150, $0.18, psychological $0.20–0.25.

Key Catalyst: BTC Retaking Narrative + CeFi/DeFi Bridge (CeDeFi), Binance Megadrop/Initial Listing Legacy.

Pressure factor: Monthly vesting from investor/team/advisor allocations continues throughout 2025 → supply pressure.

Project and narrative

BounceBit is a Bitcoin restaging-focused, EVM-compatible, dual-token PoS (BTC + BB) L1. It moves yields from custodian partners like CEFFU onto the chain and makes them restaable through the concept of "Liquidity Custody Token (LCT)"; it builds a CeDeFi bridge that combines CeFi yields and on-chain farming.

Chronology & positioning

May 13, 2024: Mainnet and BB listing/airdrop; the first project of Binance Megadrop.

Pre-launch TVL was impressive (pre-mainnet claim of ~$1B TVL).

Tokenomics and unlocking dynamics

Notable allocations and lockups according to the official document:

Investors: 21% – 12-month lockup, then 5% monthly unlock.

Team: 10% – 12-month lock, then 2.5% monthly.

Advisors: 5% – 12-month lock, then 2.5% monthly.

Testnet & TVL Incentive: 4% – TGE opening.

Binance Megadrop: 8% – TGE opening.

Comment: With the 12-month lock expiration in May 2025, a steady stream of monthly unlocks began starting in the summer of 2025; this could increase selling pressure, especially during periods of weak demand. Third-party vesting calendars also indicate significant unlocks throughout 2025.

Current Market Picture

Price Band: Recent week/month data shows BB fluctuating between $0.095–0.145, still 80%+ below ATH. Coingecko/CMC pages confirm the current ranges and ATL/ATH dates.

Market Capitalization and Circulating Supply: Current figures vary slightly across different data providers; CMC typically lists a circulating supply of ~0.68–0.69B BB with a maximum supply of 2.1B BB. (Current values change rapidy.)

Technical analysis (using daily/4s outlook logic)

Trend: The main trend since the ATH has been down; it entered a sideways-recovery phase after the June 2025 ATL. The $0.10 psychological zone is critical for trend reversal attempts.

Supports

$0.105–0.110: Short-term buyer holding area; dips below it typically result in liquidity sweeps.

$0.095: Weekly bottom cluster.

$0.0736 (ATL): Macro support; loss, structural weakness.

Resistances

$0.145–0.150: Recent high; $0.18 could be quickly tested if a breakout confirmation occurs.

$0.20–0.25: Difficult to break through without news flow; profit taking increases here.

Structural thresholds

A daily close above $0.18 can be considered a breakout signal from the short-term downtrend channel.

A daily close below $0.095 increases ATL downside risks.

Chain/fundamental catalysts

Restaking narrative: BTC yield + EVM compatibility, the continued demand for BTC liquidity to migrate to DeFi, is quite positive.

CeDeFi bridge and LCTs: Combining institutional custody with on-chain yield opportunities like CEFFU is a point of differentiation.

Exchange access: Multiple currency pairs, including BB/USDT and BB/TRY, on Binance; positive for liquidity.

Roadmap: Post-Mainnet 2024 plans focused on deepening CeDeFi integration; ecosystem growth/remittance/RWA developments in 2025 are potential catalysts.

Risks

Supply pressure (vesting): Monthly unlocks will continue throughout 2025. This could push the price down on days when liquidity is low.

Narrative dependency: If the "BTC restoring" narrative loses traction, demand will also weaken.

Market beta: BB may be highly correlated with the broader market (especially BTC volatility); risk of a return to the ATL zone.

CeDeFi model: Operational/regulatory risks in the central custody-chain bridge may affect project perception.

Scenario-based roadmap (3–6 months)

Positive scenario: BTC strengthening + ecosystem dApp/TVL increase + news flow → If $0.145–0.18 is broken, expansion to the $0.20–0.25 range is possible. (Volume confirmation is required.)

Neutral scenario: Flat between $0.10–0.15; downward spikes on unlock days, upward spikes on news/incentives.

Negative scenario: A drop below $0.095 and testing $0.085–0.09; negative macro or weak ecosystem flow could bring ATL back to $0.0736.

Metrics / checklist to monitor

Vesting calendar & net emission: Monthly BB volume, exchange entries and exits.

On-chain activity: TVL, active addresses, LCT usage, number of dApps. (Official documentation and ecosystem dashboards.

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