$TREE
fell 4.27% in the past 24h, extending a 23.5% weekly decline. Three key factors drove the drop:
Airdrop sell pressure – Early recipients dumped tokens after July 29 listings
Negative funding rates – Derivatives markets turned bearish post-TVL milestone
Weak altcoin rotation – Bitcoin dominance rose to 60.97%, starving alts of capital
Deep Dive @Treehouse Official #Treehouse
1. Airdrop Sell-Offs (Bearish Impact)
TREE launched on July 29 with 15.6% (156M tokens) circulating immediately, including 12.5M airdropped to Binance users. Historical data shows 42% of new tokens drop within 24h of exchange debuts due to profit-taking.
What this means:
The unlocked airdrop tokens created instant sell pressure. With 1B total supply, traders anticipate dilution from future unlocks (82.5% of tokens remain vested). High turnover (volume/market cap = 142%) confirms volatile exit liquidity.
What to watch:
August 6 cliff unlocks for core team (12.5%) and strategic investors (17.5%).
2. Derivatives Sentiment Shift
TREE spiked 30% on August 1 after hitting $500M TVL but reversed as funding rates turned negative (-0.0017924% average for alts vs BTC).
What this means:
The TVL milestone initially attracted buyers, but perpetual traders began paying shorts to bet on further declines. This mirrors patterns seen in new DeFi tokens where hype fades post-metrics.
3. Altcoin Weakness
Bitcoin dominance rose to 60.97% (from 60.64% yesterday), while the Altcoin Season Index fell 16.67% to 35.
What this means:
Capital rotated out of riskier assets like TREE into BTC amid neutral market sentiment (Fear & Greed Index: 52/100). TREE’s -61% monthly drop underperforms the crypto market’s +13.14% 30d gain.
TREE faces triple headwinds: post-airdrop dilution, derivatives skepticism, and macro rotation into Bitcoin. While the protocol’s $500M TVL shows product-market fit, token economics and market structure currently favor sellers.
Key watch: Can staking APRs (50-75% in Pre-Deposit Vaults) offset sell pressure if ETH yields rebound?