As July comes to a thrilling close, Bitcoin is knocking on the door of $120K, powered by macro catalysts, bullish momentum, and a historic U.S.–EU trade deal. But under the surface, traders are eyeing liquidity risks and key economic events that could flip the script.
everything you need to know this week:
🔹 1. Bitcoin Holds $119K — But $113K Threat Lurks Below
BTC is holding steady near $118,650, forming a potential bull flag pattern after a strong weekly close at $119,450.
📈 Eyes are on the psychological $120K breakout, but $117K is the must-hold line for continuation.
📉 Lose that zone? Liquidity charts hint at a retest of $113K.
💬 Crypto Tony warns:
"If Bitcoin can tighten up and hold over $117,000, then I think we are good for new ATHs very soon."
🗓️ 2. Macro Madness: Fed, PCE & GDP Set the Tone
Welcome to the most data-loaded week of 2025:
📌 Wednesday: Fed rate decision & Powell’s press conference
📌 Thursday: PCE inflation — the Fed’s favorite metric
📌 Plus: Q2 GDP, mega-cap earnings, and mounting political pressure on Powell
💥 Even if rates stay flat, the market wants hints of a September pivot — and Powell is feeling the heat.
🌍 3. “Biggest Trade Deal Ever” Supercharges Global Risk-On Sentiment
The U.S. and EU just dropped a bombshell:
🤝 A landmark trade agreement now ties together 44% of global GDP
📊 Result?
S&P 500 futures pop to record highs above 6,400
Tariff tensions with China paused for 90 days
European and U.S. markets rally in unison
This global risk appetite could keep fueling crypto upside — if Bitcoin plays along.
📆 4. July’s Solid Run — But Will August Chill the Rally?
+11.3% in July — a strong but not unusual performance for BTC
✅ Matches the 12-year July average of +7.8%
⚠️ August? Historically quiet, with average returns of just +1.75%
🔑 BTC must stay above the $109K breakout zone to keep bullish vibes alive into Q3.
💸 5. Stablecoin Liquidity Drying Up — A Warning Signal?
According to CryptoQuant:
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is rising
Meaning: Less “fresh money” (stablecoins) ready to buy BTC
🧠 Analyst Arab Chain explains:
"A continued rise in SSR may indicate that buying momentum will weaken in the future."
👀 Translation: Liquidity crunch ahead unless fresh capital flows in.
💥 Final Take: Bitcoin's at the Brink — But Macro Moves & Liquidity Hold the Key
With BTC hovering just under $120K, the bullish setup looks strong — but not bulletproof.
Keep your eyes on the Fed, follow the stablecoin flows, and watch that $117K level like a hawk.
This week might define how Q3 plays out.$BTC