Ethereum completed wave 5 at $3,675 and now shows a structure pointing to a move down toward $3,528.
The visible volume profile shows $3,560 is the main zone where Ethereum may pause during its expected fall.
The RSI divergence and stochastic reversal confirm Ethereum could revisit $3,447 before any possible bounce.
Ethereum (ETH) traded at $3,660 on Coinbase after forming a textbook five-wave impulse on the 15-minute chart. The current pattern shows a completed wave five, potentially indicating an exhaustion of the bullish trend. A corrective drop appears likely, based on Fibonacci retracement levels and oscillator divergence.
https://twitter.com/Michael_EWpro/status/1946776029655138612 Rising Wedge Breakout and Immediate Resistance
ETH/USD formed a rising wedge that carried the price from $3,528 to the $3,675 region, aligning closely with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This level matches the projected wave five target in the Elliott Wave count. As the price hit $3,675, it briefly exceeded the 3.618 extension from an earlier move but failed to sustain momentum.
The current candle structure shows possible bearish divergence on both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator. RSI remained below its previous high while the price climbed, signaling weakening strength. The Stochastic Oscillator has shown a downward cross, indicating a loss of buying pressure.
Volume remained subdued compared to earlier peaks, suggesting the breakout lacks strong participation. Historical volume at this price range also reveals significant resistance, confirmed by the visible volume profile to the right of the chart.
Retracement Zones and Fibonacci Confluence
ETH faces potential retracement zones at $3,584 and $3,528, corresponding to the 0.618 and 1.0 Fibonacci levels respectively. These levels align with prior support and may serve as initial bounce points. Below these, the $3,447 area forms the next possible demand zone as it coincides with historical lows.
The corrective path labeled (a)-(b)-(c) has started to take shape, and the projected wave (c) appears to extend lower. The downward arrows on the chart suggest ETH may revisit $3,528, then break toward $3,447 in a steeper move.
Price rejection at the top of wave five and a bearish engulfing candle confirm the weakening trend. The Ichimoku Cloud shows thinning support, while the price trades near the edge of the conversion line, indicating vulnerability to reversal.
Should ETH breach the $3,584 level, a rapid decline could follow, especially with insufficient volume to support consolidation. This potential downturn aligns with the forecasted wave C bottom, completing the ABC correction structure.
Market Sentiment and Liquidity Zones
The volume profile histogram on the right side highlights $3,560 as the most traded zone in the recent session. This value area acts as a magnet and could slow down the correction if price reaches this region. However, should selling volume spike, ETH may fall through this liquidity wall quickly.
Price history suggests $3,447 serves as a key support, with previous rebounds occurring at this point. Traders may monitor this area for potential long entries or further breakdown signals.
The Bollinger Bands on the chart are beginning to expand after a tight squeeze, suggesting a volatile move is incoming. Directional confirmation will depend on how price reacts to $3,584 and $3,528 support levels.
Despite short-term bullish structure, technical evidence now points toward a correction that may last through July 20. What levels will attract enough buyers to reverse the trend?
If wave five has peaked, then Ethereum's bullish rally may soon give way to a broader ABC correction. Volume, momentum indicators, and price structure all favor a deeper pullback.
