📉 BTC/USDC Outlook Update – July 15, 2025

Mixed Technical + Statistical Approach

🕯 Candlestick Reversal Patterns

Doji (July 12) followed by a Shooting Star (July 13) near 120,000

Signals rejection at key resistance → bearish reversal confirmed

📊 Technical Indicators

MACD: Losing momentum; divergence appearing

RSI: Was extremely overbought (>87); now cooling

Bollinger Bands: Compression phase starting → potential sideways zone

🧮 Statistical Analysis

Hurst Exponent: H ≈ 0.51 → no strong trend (random walk). But bot significant

Runs Test: z = 4.38, p < 0.00001 → strong mean-reverting signal

💡 Support & Resistance

Now that BTC/USDC has already reached 116,000, we shift from bearish to neutral–cautious:

🔄 Base Case: Consolidation Phase

Range: 116,000 – 118,000

Momentum cooling, low volatility expected

Bollinger squeeze supports sideways movement

⏫ Bullish Rebound (less likely)

If support holds, short-term bounce toward 119,000 possible

⏬ Breakdown Risk (low probability)

If 116,000 fails, watch 114,000 and 115,000 EMAs

📣 Summary:

As of now, BTC/USDC has reached its projected support zone near 116,000. The order book is showing signs of stabilization, with bid walls forming between 115,800–116,000 and ask walls above 117,000.

We expect a sideways consolidation phase in this range for the remainder of the week unless a major volume spike changes sentiment.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or trading advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Support & Resistance