🎯 This Prediction Always Remember and Pinup your Mind💡
1. What happened in the last 4 months? The Truth Under Dramatic Volatility
First and foremost is the huge global macro-political and economic uncertainty was triggered but now seems to be controlled (if not eliminated). Specifically the trade war in March/April this year knocked the price of Bitcoin to 74k and the recent ceasefire in the Middle East pushed the price to 120k. The global macro narrative has never been more direct impacting Bitcoin price.
2. What's affecting the price of Bitcoin? Two major trends are exploding
The first is the pricing power shift trend (mid to late stage)
-Wall Street is officially taking over: bitcoin ETFs are averaging $200M+ in daily inflows
-Trump wins election → big SEC regulatory relief
-Stablecoin bill passes → compliance process grinds on
Second is the liquidity easing trend (early days)
-U.S. M2 surged 6% y/y, but the market cap of stablecoin on the chain is only $160B (vs. traditional finance ≈ large growth space for onchain stable coins)
-Divergence in rate cut expectations? Doesn't matter! Europe has already cuted their interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, Fed will follow within the year (CME rate futures bet on 85% probability of rate cut in September)
-Global M2 has been rising, and historically Bitcoin price has been strongly correlated with M2 supply (as shown in the graph).
3. CONCLUSION: Bitcoin = the best risk asset
From a financial allocation perspective, Bitcoin has become the best quality USD risk asset: highly cashable, with the high risk-adjusted return. And those huge global macro-political and economic shocks are controlled, with the US and China working together again, higher certainty of US and European rate cuts, and new highs in global M2 supply. Personally, I think Bitcoin will be a very worthwhile dollar asset to hold and allocate for the next five years, provided the US dollar system doesn't crash.