Stellar Lumens' funding rate has dropped to the lowest since June, signaling strong short-selling pressure across futures markets.
XLM trades below the 50-day and 100-day EMAs and a key Fibonacci level, suggesting risk of a further drop to $0.15.
On-chain metrics remain positive, with rising active users, higher transaction volumes, and record stablecoin and asset tokenization levels.
Stellar Lumens (XLM) has reached a critical support level at $0.2175, raising concerns of an extended decline. The token has dropped 35 % from its May peak and is currently down 62% from its highest price in 2024. This support matches the April low and aligns with the lower boundary of a descending triangle, a technical indicator often linked to bearish price continuation.
The funding rate for Stellar futures has remained in negative territory for most of the time since May. As of this week, it has dropped to its lowest level since June 30. A negative funding rate reflects a market where short positions dominate, meaning traders betting on a price drop are paying those with long positions. This consistent pressure from short sellers is undermining buying momentum.
Price Break Below Fibonacci and Key Averages
XLM has fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical zone where many assets often stabilize. Additionally, the token now trades under both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages. A confirmed break below the triangle’s lower boundary could trigger further downside. The next support area stands at $0.15, which represents a 36 percent potential decline from current levels.
Despite the negative price action, Stellar’s network activity remains strong. Data from Artemis shows that operations on the network surged to 197 million in June. The supply of stablecoins on the platform has reached a record $667 million. In parallel, real-world asset tokenization on Stellar has grown steadily for five straight months, reaching $487 million in value.
Active Users and Transactions Continue to Climb
Nansen notes that Stellar registered an 11% growth in the number of weekly transactions, which were 18.2 million. The active addresses increased by 10% to 146,700. These tendencies indicate the increasing network activity, despite a conservative perception of XLM in the market as a result of both technical and derivative signals.
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